Beginner Series Part 4 - River Theory
What a bet means and the what are the alternatives.
In most of the poker books I bought years ago, the order of the subject matter was typically: outline of the game, preflop, river, and then post flop. It drove me insane that not only could the author not put things in order but often turn play was either left out entirely or relegated to a corner of the room with a “It’s tough to figure out - Do your best.” synopsis.
Well, years later as I write this series, here I am doing the same thing practically. It makes sense to learn preflop first because you play that every hand. It makes sense to do river next because the theory you learn about the river is a necessary building block to understanding poker theory generally. We will discuss postflop and turn. However, getting river concepts is a fundamental element of what those streets should look like.
River Play - Bet, Call, or Fold
A big part of poker is end game theory. We have all (hopefully) gotten to the river and faced a decision. The decisions on the river are simpler in theory than those on any other street. You may say “But that’s when the biggest bets come in!” or “That’s when I’m most likely to bluff or get bluffed!” I didn’t say easier - I said simpler.
Reasons to bet
There are really only 3 reasons to bet in poker.
For Value - To get called by a lesser hand.
As a Bluff - To get folds from superior hands.
To deny equity - A mix of the two above and mostly as a protective measure.
For end game (end hand really) we can ignore #3 as we don’t have to concern ourselves with another card that would improve our opponent’s hand. There are no more cards to come. So let’s concentrate on the first 2. (This is a beginner course so I will keep it simple)
If a large river bet is placed with respect to the current pot, the bettor is making a polarized bet. This simply means that it is a “nutted” type hand (the very best possible hand or something close) or it is “air” a complete bluff that can not win unless the opponent folds. The same bet sizing is used to balance the value and the bluffs. You can imagine if the bets were of different sizing, an observant opponent could figure out the pattern and use it against the bettor.
So with garbage and the nuts the player will bet big. What does that mean for the middle strength type hands like 2nd pair or a straight on a board that has a possible flush? Well it turns out those hands prefer to check and potentially call a bet.
You may say “Wait a minute. I thought aggressive poker is winning poker?”. Well, as a generalization, it is. However, like everything in games and life, there is nuance.
This mid strength hand has a chance to be the best of the two hands. Therefore, it wants to get to showdown without putting more money in the pot. The last thing it wants is to bet and get raised and have to fold.
If the mid strength hand checks and calls a bet, this is a preferable outcome. This is because by checking, a weakness is shown that could: induce a thin value bet from a worse hand, induce a bluff from a worse hand, get checked back, or induce a true value bet from a nutted hand. Three out of the 4 of these possibilities are good for the mid strength hand.
Now let’s look at the option of value betting the mid strength hand. Here the outcomes are: the opponent may call, the opponent may fold, or the opponent may raise.
Let’s break these down:
The opponent calling could be good but is more likely bad for the mid strength hand. The opponent sees the bet and the strength it represents and decides to call anyway. Perhaps they believe it to be a bluff. But more likely they believe they are calling with a better hand. This one is a wash at best.
The opponent folding may sound great to beginner ears but remember this: the mid strength hand would have won at showdown anyway had it checked and been checked back to.
The opponent raising is a complete disaster. The weight of this possibility and the fact that this mid strength hand now has to fold can’t be understated. This outcome is a complete waste of chips.
This may sound like a lot of very complicated thinking - Hopefully not. I hope the reader can see that this theory is relatively simple compared to the scenarios on the flop and turn when there are still cards to come. I advise new players to understand the gist of this river concept as soon as possible.
It amazes me how long it takes some players to grasp this concept. I will admit it took me years to conceptualize end game dynamics. That day was an enlightenment for my game and I now understand that it is a cornerstone to poker theory.
If you still don’t understand this, it is likely that I have failed at explaining it. Please try other sources including:
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This spoke directly to me! Thank you! I will be trying to check and then call the (smallish) bet on my next middling holding on the river instead of throwing money mindlessly into the middle — or worse yet, folding to any bet because this time I’ll be able to anticipate it coming!
I struggle with the bluffs on the river.