In the midst of reviewing and deciphering about 20 random post it notes from last year, I thought it may be best to put them down in a legible format for future reference. While I’m doing that, why not share these notes with the world in hopes to help someone else out and perhaps get some feedback on anything I’m leaving out.

There are a lot of WSOP prep courses out there for newcomers that talk everything you need to know about strategy and player pool tendancies. Don’t expect any of that here but a lot of the ideas I’m going to share do come from the lists of others as well as our experiences in the Summer Desert.

This essay is going to be most helpful to those who haven’t been to the WSOP or experienced the variety of venues and games that the various other poker rooms offer. If you have been, maybe you can pick something up that is still helpful to you or sparks an idea or aspect or product that I overlooked. If so, please let me know in the comments and we will continue to make this list more comprehensive.

Where to Stay

Starting with the logistics, I recommend staying “on campus” if possible. Especially if you plan on playing more than a couple WSOP events. By campus I mean at Paris or the Horseshoe. Being able to easily head back to your room for something you forgot or for a quick bathroom break after breakfast is a game changer for me. The room rates are reasonable especially mid week and if you use the code: WSOP26 on Caesar’s website, you will get 10% off your room.

Even if you do find yourself wandering away from the WSOP venue (more on that later), this is a great centrally located spot as you can walk to any poker room on the strip (though the Wynn may be a stretch).

What to do First

The very first things you need to do are download the WSOP Live app, get a Caesar’s Rewards Card, and get your app verified.

You can download the WSOP Live app from home before you even set off. It’s the same app that is used on the WSOP Circuits that you may already have.

When you get to Paris, the Horseshoe, or any Caesar’s property, you can find a Caesar’s Rewards Center on any casino floor. You will need your ID but it is free to get the card.

Once you have the app and the rewards card, head to the Champagne Room on the Paris side of things. Someone in the room will match your ID, rewards card, and app and verify you. This is also a good time to deposit cash or set up your credit or debit card to your account. This makes registering for a tournament quick and easy.

Once you go through this process, you are good to go for any WSOP event. Simply register for your tournament of choice on the app. Once you decide to sit in, you will get a table and seat number and be ready to show the dealer your app in exchange for your chips.

Your Pack

At my first WSOP in 2017, I was shocked that everyone had a backpack. I hadn’t worn a backpack since the 5th grade. Why would I need a pack to play cards? My ignorance stemmed from the fact that I had never played cards for 10 hours straight. It turns out a lot of creature comforts fit nicely into a pack.

Whether you carry a full backpack, a side pack, or a fanny pack, here is a list of things you may consider putting in there.

1. Hoodie or Jacket - Its hard to believe but sometimes it gets downright cold in these places.

2. Gum / Candy - After 5 hours and 4 cups of black coffee I start getting self conscious that my breath may not be as minty fresh as it was when I sat down. Also - I really like candy.

3. Lip Balm - While a Carmex tub is always my go to, consider bringing a lip balm of your choice. It’s very dry out there and can help make you feel a bit less cracked up.

4. Portable Charger - Get a cheap portable charger (and cord) to charge up your phone for the deep run you are dreaming of.

5. Ear Buds - I don’t recommend distracting yourself from the action at the table. However, if you have someone that is really annoying you, it may be your best bet. You don’t even have to listen to anything. Just having them in your ears can keep you from being pestered.

6. Hand Sanitizer - Sharing chips, cards and a dealer change every 30 minutes ensures that you have second hand contact with every person in the room within a few hours of sitting. It’s filthy. If you can’t see it or feel it just trust me. Use hand sanitizer and keep your little part of the world as germ free as you can.

At the Table

If you are an online player trying your hand on the live felt, here are a couple tips to keep your inexperience to yourself. Keep in mind that every NLH tournament that you will play will have a Big Blind Ante. This means the BB position posts his BB and an ante of the same size. Get used to the idea of putting it out there without being asked.

Keeping your chips in a good order also helps your image of comfort and confidence. You want to keep big chips in front or on top. When you have a lot of chips, put them in stacks of 10 or 20 to make it easy for you and your opponents to count your stack with ease.

Where else to go

Lastly, there is more to a summer of poker than the WSOP and NLH. I would challenge anyone to find a venue away from it all to see what some of the other places have to offer.

Higher buyin games can be found at the Wynn, Venetian, and Aria while low stakes series can be found at the Orleans, Southpoint, the Golden Nugget, and MGM Grand as well as very affordable dailies at Caesar’s Palace and the Bellagio.

Consult Poker Atlas for up to the minute details on tournaments.

Also, summer in Vegas is a great place to get your feet wet in some mixed games. If you ever wanted take a break from NLH to play a tournament of 2-7 Triple Draw or 7 Card Stud 8 or better, this is the time and place. Lower buyins are available for mixed games at the Orleans, SouthPoint, and the Golden Nugget.

One of my goals every year is to play at a new venue and play a new game. I have never regretted fulfilling this goal!

Good Luck to everyone, have a great poker summer, and I hope to run into you out there.

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Through nurture, we are taught to express or repress certain emotions depending on the circumstances and degree of the situation as well as perceived social norms. The level and application of this “nurture” can further affect the very emotions and frequency that are being expressed or repressed at the time.

This is all to say we are born differently from each other and we are also raised and instilled with different ways of dealing with emotions. None of this should come as any surprise to anyone with eyes, ears, or empathy. I would like to think we are all trying to do our best to regulate our emotions as best as we can.

In sports, we may realize - logically at least - that just because the winner of this baseball game gets to go to state, this is not a good biological reason for players to become overly emotional about the outcome. On the other hand, perhaps if I am the one looking down a 94 mph fastball whirling towards my head, I may feel differently.

Which takes us to a place where emotions run high without fear for life or safety.1 The poker felt is a competitive environment without doubt. It is also a place where we see players handle emotions on a wide spectrum.

You see it happen all too often from loss of verbal control to a top name pro blow up moment. Of course emotions spike for various reasons but the key ingredient usually involves pressure or friction on the aspect of the game that motivates that particular player. Non players usually think it’s about the money. The reality is as long as a person is playing within his bankroll2, he shouldn’t be any more emotional about losing a buyin than he would be paying $15 for a beer at a MLB game.

I have become overly emotional at the table more times than I would like to admit. There is one instance that stands out in my mind from a few years back in which a player put my top 2 pair to the test on the flop. I called his all in and found out the bad news. He had flopped bottom set. When the turn card filled my boat, I slapped the table and exclaimed “YES!”. I couldn’t believe that I had emotionally lost myself like that and immediately regretted it and apologized to my opponent and the table. I ran quite deep in that tournament and was embarrassed -which is also an emotion that I over blew that day - the rest of the tournament despite my table mates not making a thing of it at all.

Why would they? I hear players yelling from across the room “L-F-G!” all day and night long, players getting so upset at other player - and dealers! - that they want to physically fight. It’s not like people just get emotional at the poker table. This is happening everywhere it seems. My point is the poker table seems like a place where it shouldn’t be happening as often.

Any counselor worth her salt will also tell you that beating yourself up about an emotional outburst doesn’t solve anything. This is just emotional baggage on top of the other. It is best to acknowledge, sit with the idea without judgment, and move forward using systems to avoid this pitfall in the future.

So what are some ways we can emotionally regulate before and when we sit down to play?

1. Play games that are within your budget or bankroll.

2. Confirm with yourself that the best you can do is make the correct decision each time it is your turn to act. If you feel like you made a bad decision, write it down and look it up afterwards but be able to let it go and move on.

3. Let go of the idea that you have control over things like the random cards that present themselves. You aren’t responsible for this part of the game. You can let go of being upset by luck (or bad luck).

4. The other players at the table want to win and have a good time as well. Don’t ruin their time just because things aren’t going your way especially if you are going to be playing against these opponents again.

5. Use breathing exercises from meditation or yoga training. Breathing calms and helps to regulate the highs and lows. Premature celebration can take a lot of energy from you when you realize there is still a battle to fight.

6. Don’t let yourself get worked up in a hand against your rival. The player with the better emotional control has an advantage.

It’s also important to give beginners and young people a break when they show too much emotion at the table. If we think back to our beginnings with the game, I’m sure many of us would be embarrassed with that version of ourselves and probably have some good advice for that person.3

Emotions have a place in life and on the felt. It’s great to see someone happy that they won a pot. Disappointment is almost mandatory when busting a tournament. Humans shouldn’t strive to be emotionless robots. We should, however strive to be properly emotionally regulated for the moment at hand.

If you enjoyed this essay, please consider hitting the Like (heart) button below. As always, if you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments or email me at mikieculpepper@gmail.com. And once again, thank you for reading.

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If that seems like the most obvious sentence you have read in a while, please allow me to explain. Of course there are major differences between tournament vs. cash, low stakes vs. high stakes, and home games vs. triton events. I wont waste my time or yours trying to show or convince you of the differences in these examples.

What I mean is not all poker variants play the same. In Razz, you can have a very nutted hand compared to your opponent’s up cards, and it can be broken to dust by getting a 7th street that makes a full house or a third pair. You can break a made hand in 2-7 triple draw and end up with a much worse hand after your third draw. At least in No Limit Holdem (NLH) we are never going to see a river and suddenly have a worse hand than we had on the previous street!

The point is this: In every variant we - and our opponents - build a pot that we may or may not wish we had by the time it comes to showdown. However, those of us that play NLH have an ace up our sleeve when it comes to any equity advantage we may have and being able to realize it by the time the river betting is done. This is due to the wide spread in range equity vs. range equity. Let me show you…..

In NLH, with the best hand - AA - we have a massive equity advantage against our opponent’s entire range. Against a random hand, AA enjoys an 85% - 15% advantage. Versus the second best starting hand - KK - , AA wins 81% of the time. The hand that performs the very best against our AA is a suited version of 76 of a suit that does not match one of our aces. The equity of these so called “Ace Crackers” - 23%. That leaves our Aces with an equity at 77% in a worst case scenario when we get it heads up against an opponent.

Of course this is an extreme example but there are plenty others that get us over 80% equity such as any over pair vs. any under pair. I say this in an effort to help you understand that NLH offers extreme - by poker standards at least - equity advantages.

If we contrast that to Pot Limit Omaha 8 or better (PLO8) as an example. A great hand like Ah2hKc3c will only have about a 64% equity advantage over a bad hand like Ts9h7c4d1. In other words: If you think you get bad beat a lot in NLH, this should be an eye opener for you.

So why are we discussing equity spreads in games that you probably don’t play and may never even find an interest in? The answer is to shine a light on the idea that you should be taking advantage of this fantastic opportunity that your game of choice (NLH) is offering. The strategy is to use your equity and positional range advantage to your maximum benefit - especially when you are deep stacked.

If you could a roll a die that has 100 sides (instead of the conventional 6) once a day and if you roll a 41-100 you win a dollar and you roll 1-40 you lose a dollar, you should be taking the opportunity to take your roll every day. Some people may say “It’s only a dollar, its hardly worth it” while others might bemoan the times they lose 5 days in a row (this would definitely happen). It really doesn’t matter. Time and chance are on your side in the long run. Your equity for each roll turns out to be $.20. The sooner we look at this roll to be worth 20 cents every time we roll wheter we win or lose, the sooner we will take the emotion and the feeling of chance out of this daily routine.

The same should be said for pushing for our equity when it comes to having an advantage in NLH. We will say we have an advantage when we enjoy a range advantage and / or a positional advantage. While these 2 advantages are unique, there are many times we find ourselves enjoying each. Both range and position advantages are very important and depending on stack sizes and exact positions, one can be more or less important than the other. For ease, we will look at situations when we have both these advantages in the hand.

When we open raise and get called by the big blind, we are in a very frequent scenario where we enjoy both advantages. In this case, we want to be - generally - pushing this advantage throughout the hand. We do this by betting with reasonably small sizes and on multiple streets.

As an example, our LJ raise will have a tighter and stronger range against the Big Blind player’s calling range at 100 Big Blinds. Lets say the board is Jd8c3s. While both opponents have Jacks in their range, our HJ open will have KJo, AJo, JJ, QJs, KJs, AJs and sometimes QJo. That’s all the Jacks our range should have. Compare that to our opponent in the BB seat. Our opponent can have J9o+, JJ, J2s, J3s, J4s, J5s, J6s, J7s, J8s, AJs2.

So how do these ranges compare on this board? While the player in the BB does have more nutted hands like 2 pair with a J8s or a J3s that we do not possess, we have a massive equity advantage. If we try to randomize hands in our range vs hands in his, likely match ups would be KJo vs. J6s or QJs vs J9s. The tops of each of our ranges are similar but the bottom of villain’s range dilutes the relative strength of his hand on this flop.

This is an example where small bets will likely be called by our opponent, it is also likely that neither player improves significantly on the turn in which case another bet by the LJ would be effective again. Compound this with the pressure that you can put on your opponent when he can foreshadow that he will face another bet on the river, and you will often create a fold then and there and deny your opponent the opportunity to realize any sliver of equity he may still possess. This pressure - and the potential for future pressure) gives the advantaged player leverage in the hand.

This example comes from a hand where we both have top pair. Of course this will not always - or even often - be the case. But if we can get a weak top pair to fold the turn or river when we have the goods, it opens up the opportunity to get folds from weak top pair when we whiffed the flop altogether.

Using our pressure for these small slices of equity works best when you and your opponent are deep stacked for maximum leverage against a capped range. When deep (100 Big Blinds or more) both players can “afford” to lose these small bets that you will win a majority of the time.

This is the concept of pressuring a weaker range from a superior position. Spoiler Alerts: This is not magic. It will not always work. You will still lose hands in poker.

However, just like rolling the 60% die, using a range and positional advantage will win you chips in the long run a small sliver at a time. In a game like poker where we try to find advantages anywhere we can, you need to be getting your proverbial 20 cents a day EVERY day of the week.

If you enjoyed this article, please consider hitting the like (heart) button. If you have any questions or feedback, please leave a comment below. As always, thank you for reading.

Special thanks to Sam Greenwood and his Punt of the Day (POTD) Substack for choosing my submission. Here he analyzes a hand that pits Michael Culpepper vs. Mike Holtz in a $2500 WSOP event from 2024.

If you haven’t subscribed to POTD, I would certainly recommend it. Sam tackles some high level concepts that every player should - at least - expose himself to.

Club News: If you play in our weekly game, I would like to invite you to join our new Discord channel. Please click here to join. If the link has gone stale, please email me at MikieCulpepper@gmail.com and I will send you a new link.

As this publication has grown its audience well beyond our poker club and into general poker strategy content, a void has presented itself to the club. We need to have a space where announcements, updates, accomplishments, and connection can happen and not just from the top down.

This new discord channel will - hopefully - create a space where we all feel welcome to post, share ideas, and build relationships. This space will be THE place for any club announcements such as a time or host change for our weekly game, and a library of content that myself and all users can learn from and - importantly - add to.

Our discord server also offers a free voice chat similar to zoom that we will use for club meetings, club members getting together to study or talk hands, and of course for our weekly video hang out while playing the Tuesday game.

So please join us on our new Discord server as soon as you get a chance. If you are having trouble, let me know and we will get you square. It is completely free.

The board which primarily serves as a tournament clock to let players and dealers know when the blind levels change has a lot of other helpful information within. A typical tournament board will contain the buy in amount, any guarantee, the current and next blind level, number of total entries and how many runners are still in the tournament, whether registration is still open, whether the players are in the money (ITM), the average stack size, and any upcoming breaks. After the tournament is ITM, the board will show payouts for each place.

Hopefully if you are in the tournament you already know the amount for which you bought in, the guaranteed prize pool, and the current blind level.

The next blind level can be a useful bit of information especially if it will be an “awkward” level in which the small blind (SB) makes up more than half the big blind (BB). An example could be a level of SB1000/BB1500/BBA1500. During these levels, expect the small blind to complete if it is folded to her - or it is a limped pot - more often than in the typical situation where the BB is double the SB. This is because of the pot odds being offered to the SB. Because of this, the BB has more raises to a SB limp as he realizes that the SB is completing wider than she typically would. This can become a leveling situation if it is perceived that the respective players are in the know to this situation and the dynamics presented.

If you are playing a reentry tournament, it can be really important to keep an eye on whether registration is still open. In certain events and against certain opponents, play can be WILDLY different before the close of registration and after. It is a complaint of many recreational and large field runners that players with deep pockets will fire many bullets (entries) into reentry events and play very wide and aggressive until late registration is closed. Rather than complain, do a combination of game selection and player profiling to play these spots as best you can. However, whatever style you play to get through the late registration period, it is imperative to “shift gears” after late registration is over. At this point, no matter the player’s tendencies or bankroll, the tournament has essentially become a freezeout. Players that a few hands ago were playing wildly and putting maximum pressure on others that they deemed as “scared recs” will now be staying in their lane and playing in a more typical and fundamental fashion.

The number of players left in the field and the total number of entries is pertinent information in that it can give you a rough idea of where the money bubble will find itself. This number becomes much more accurate as the close of registration gets closer. You just need to multiply the number of entries times the percentage of the field that gets paid. For instance, in a 500 player field that pays 12% of the runners, the bubble should happen at the 60th place player (500*.12).

The break schedule is important to know so you can time your needs such as bathroom breaks, smoking, eating, stretching, or studying. It’s important to know how long your break is as you are leaving the table. I like to set an alarm for a minute or two less than the break clock to ensure I am back at the table without missing a hand. I like to walk and get my cardiovascular system some repetitions after my restroom break. If you decide you want to study some poker charts or ask the wizard about a hand that you played in the last level, be careful and know the rules. Most poker tours and poker rooms don’t allow Real Time Assistance (RTA) in the “poker arena”. Finding a place out of the room may be your best bet.

After late reg ends and the money bubble has popped, the real fun begins. At this point, our big board will be displaying the payout schedule. If you are fortunate enough to have a clear view of the board, this can be advantageous. In large fields, this includes pay jump groupings that can act as a mini ICM laddering spot. For example, if you are sitting on a marginal shoving hand with 8 BBs in a large field with 8 tables still left and look up to see that the next pay jump will happen after one more bust out, it may be appropriate to wait for a better spot and get the pay jump.

One person to look for is the player at your table that is constantly looking at the board. If you feel like he is looking at the board to see when the next pay jump is coming, the prize may represent a large chunk of his bankroll or poker budget. If you perceive the pay jump is really important to him, you can put extra pressure on him and may get folds that you typically wouldn’t.

This brings us to the most overused and misused statistic on the big board - the average stack. The Average Stack is not the median stack in the tournament. There is no magic that is done to come up with this number. The average stack in a no add on tournament is simply:

(# of entries * starting stack size) / # of players left in the field.

Here are a couple examples:

Tournament A has 7 players left out of 40 entries that started with 20,000 chips, the average stack is (40*20,000)/7 = 114,000 chips.

Tournament B has 8500 players left out of 10,000 entries that started with 60,000 in chips. Average stack is (10,000*60,000)/8500 = 70,550 in chips.

Simple enough for sure. Also, depending on the point in the tournament, perhaps akin to useless information. While it may seem to be a nice point on which to reference your chip stack to your friends at break it really doesn’t mean much when it comes to the health of your stack in comparison to this average. This is because it doesn’t cross reference the blind level, the duration of the blind level, or the stack sizes of the players that are actually at your table.

Tournament A is based on a local twice weekly game at our local VFW. When we get to 7 handed at the final table as listed above, we are usually at the 5,000/10,000 level. This puts the “average” stack at around 11.5 BBs. Some players are going to have around 400,000 chips and others will have only a couple big blinds. We will be on or near the money bubble. All of the players left in the field are at the same table and it is obvious who is the chip leader, who the short stacks are, who has a skill advantage, and the prize laddering effects should be on this dwindling field. The blind levels are 15 minutes and there is no ante in this tournament. The average stack, essentially, means nothing in this situation.

Tournament B is based on the WSOP Main Event. It’s a freezeout and by the time it gets to 8500 runners, it is early day 2 and the blind level is likely at 500/1000/1000. The average stack represents over 70 Big Blinds! We are nowhere near the money bubble (usually late day 3 or early day 4) and in multiple event rooms so large, it would be impossible to keep track of the stacks of more than a couple tables. The table at which we are playing could well have every player below the average stack - or every player above the average stack - further muddying the value of the average stack statistic. We are essentially playing our table without much regard to the tournament as a whole. The blind levels are 2 hours and there is a big blind ante. In this scenario, even if we have half the average stack, we have over 35 Big blinds for perhaps another 2 hours! The average stack, essentially, means nothing in this situation.

With these two extremely different examples, I claim that in neither does the “average stack” statistic mean much at all. If this is the case, why do players reference it at all and why does this statistic take up space of both the tournament board and our collective minds?

The answer is we tend to want to use it to determine the health of our stack. After all, if we are doing “better than average” that has to be good or at least pertinent right? Sadly no. The health of a tournament stack is measured in either big blinds or “M1”. In either case, player strategy should be dictated on the number of big blinds in the effective stack of a hand. For instance, from UTG at 80 BBs KJo is an open fold. However from the same position with 9 BBs, it is an all in.

Because the number of big blinds in a player’s stack dictates the appropriate strategy, it makes sense that the health of a player’s tournament should also be measured by the same metric.

If there is any poker terminology that I may be guilty of overusing, it is “Count your big blinds” or “Count your Bigs”. I constantly say this both to myself and to anyone that I am giving advice. It is one thing you can control and one thing you should always be mindful of.

If you just sucked out on an all in and doubled up, don’t think about how you should have folded or how happy you are that your are “back in the tournament”. Count your Bigs. If, on the other hand, your JJ just lost half your stack to 43o on a ridiculous call, don’t sulk and don’t berate your table mate for a bad call. Count your Bigs.

By counting your big blinds you are preparing yourself for the next hand and the strategy you should be using. By counting your big blinds, you are also mentally resetting and completing an action item that “turns the page” on whatever just happened. This helps to put yourself in the correct mindset going forward and can also can help avoid tilt.

Lets say you are the big stack and lose a cooler to another sizable stack. Some players can’t stop thinking of that high water mark they had. He tells himself: “ I was up to 350,000 in chips and one of the leaders of the whole tournament and now I’ve only got 110,000 left - I need to get back to 350K”. However, if this player just counts his big blinds and finds he still has 80 BBs and a very healthy stack, perhaps this information that was right under his nose can help cool the rest of his head.

So next time you are in a tournament and look up at the tournament board whether it be a jumbo tron or a small television, keep in mind that there is a lot of important details in this electronic wall of information. Most of it is used best in conjunction with the other information on the board. However, when you go on break, don’t bother looking at the average stack….

Count your Bigs.

If you enjoyed this article, please consider liking by clicking the “heart” icon below. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a comment and we can discuss. Lastly, thank you for reading and subscribing.

There are now a lot subscribers to this newsletter that are not in our poker club. Because of the Beginner Series and the postings on substack we have gained a lot of subscribers that have never played our Tuesday game. That’s ok. Welcome. I like the idea of expanding our reach to interested poker players even if they aren’t potential club members. However, if you are interested in playing our weekly game (the crux of the club), or just learning more about it, please visit the about page on the top of the page or click this link: About our game.

I say all this to warn the reader that today’s content is specific to our game and may not be of great interest to you if you don’t play in our weekly game. If this is the case, please tune in for future columns that are broader in poker scope.

Name: Panatda “Toy” Saenkham - Huntsinger
Handle: LittleToy
Pet Hand: KQs

Note: Toy is an English Second Language (ESL) woman and I decided to leave her answers as close as possible to her actual words for 2 reasons. Firstly, although I do edit some interviewees answers to create better cognitive and grammatical flow, I try to give to the reader a good idea of the experience that I had while conducting the interview. Secondly, I believe Toy did a great job in her answers in her own words. In some cases, I thought that her current way with English gave a perspective that editing wouldn’t be able to improve upon.

Me: How did you get the nickname Toy?

Toy: It’s a nickname that my family gave me. My older sister is Tai, I am Toi (Toy), and my youngest sister is Than. There isn’t a meaning but when moving to the states, it made for an easy nickname.

Me: What got you into poker?

Toy: I didn’t know poker in Thailand but when I moved to Memphis I was introduced to the game by my boss at the time. *laughing * He didn’t teach me the game, he only introduced me to the game. I didn’t win that time.

When I moved to Texas and met John (husband), I never seen him play Poker before but he met some people that wanted to play so he played with them time to time. He couldn’t find a tournament to play in College Station, so he invited me to play and taught me the basics that way I can play with him at home. I quickly learned that poker is fun because I can beat him sometimes on the poker. Other games like pool and ring toss I never win against him. If you never win you feel bored; you don’t want to play anymore. I feel with poker that this is my game. I feel that I can win against him sometimes.

Me: How important do you think speaking English well is at the poker table?

Toy: I don’t mind my accent. If someone starts talking to me, I talk to them. When I was in Memphis, I had a coworker from England with a very heavy accent. At the beginning, we could hardly understand each other. After a year, I could understand everything he said, but he still couldn’t understand me. At that point, it wasn’t my problem anymore. I made the effort to understand him, so I’m not sorry that he didn’t do the same for me.

Me: Do you prefer poker tournaments or cash game?

Toy: I like to play tournaments. I see it similar to playing chess or other board games that I think of my strategies, and I have a goal to win the tournament. Cash games often feel more like gambling to me. When you are down you want to win those dollars back and if you are up, you want more. That way of thinking feels closer to gambling. In Thailand, people generally don’t gamble, and poker is seen as gambling. If you play poker, people will usually think you’re a gambler (especially people in my career field)*laughs*. Although sometimes I play cash games too.

Me: Are you a live player or online player primarily?

Toy: I prefer playing live because playing online is difficult. You don’t know anyone, and no one knows you or how you play.

Me: Would you be ok with JJ (Toy and John’s son) playing poker when he gets older?

Toy: He is learning NOW! When I play online on Tuesday, he sometimes sits next to me and say, “Don’t fold this one; that one good hand!” He doesn’t know a straight and some of the depth of it, but he knows if I have King and King on the board that is good hand.

Me: What do you do for a living?

Toy: I am a senior scientist at the Galveston National Laboratory. My boss is a specialist in Coronavirus. So when Covid-19 hit the U.S., everyone come to him for collaborate research project about COVID. My background is molecular biology and mostly worked with infectious diseases which are caused by bacteria but he was kind enough to get me this job that is based on molecular biology, immunology, and virology. Currently, my research focuses on the role of viral infections in neurodegenerative processes, including Long COVID, Alzheimer’s disease, and Parkinson’s disease.

Me: Is there anything about your job that relates to your work at the poker table?

Toy: I have learned that knowing I need to continue to learn is most important with any work. That is for poker and that is for the job too. If I did experiment and it was failed or didn’t give me the result that I expected, I have to trouble shoot what was wrong with it and planed for another experiment. In the same way, every time I played Poker either I won or got knocked out, I tried to figure out what made me win or get knocked out and tried to improve my play from there.

Me: You won a ticket to the WPT Prime $1100 on Club WPT Gold this past December.

Toy: I pay $30 per month to be in the club that allows me to play a certain number of tournaments for free with the membership and in some tournaments, you can earn some money if you win. I like to set goals for myself whenever I do something, and I also do it with Poker. I set my small goal to make the $30 back at least each month as basic. For big goal last year, I wanted to win a ticket to WPT. I did it and was satisfied for my big goal.

Now I have new goals to be a more serious player to play in larger tournaments as a 5-year goal. I want to be a poker pro, Lol

Me: What did you do to prepare yourself for this tournament – the biggest of your life so far?

Note to the reader: When asked, I sent Toy a lot of material for her to study for this tournament. I tried to help by offering low hanging fruit like preflop solver material as well as situational material that I thought would help with her game in this situation.

Toy: *looks at me funny as if the interviewer already knows the answer* - You give me some advice! Before, I played Poker with my instinct, and I have set my own rules that what hand I will play and what hand I will fold. When you sent me the tools, I thought OK now I know that I have to change the way I play because it is not only your hand but also I need to concern with other thing else like the position and the amount of chips I have left.

Me: How did you feel walking into the Wynn and playing in the biggest tournament you have ever played in a city where you don’t know anyone?

Toy: Excited. You have to beat 9000 people. The preflop game that you tried to tell me; I think it helped me a lot to hang for that long (7 hours). I think I don’t make it that far if I don’t study like I did.

Me: Was your competition very good?

Toy: Yes. They were very good. One player won the same prize as me but other than him they were all best skill that I see.

Me: What is one thing that you would tell “November Toy” to be prepared for? In other words, in what way were you the most unprepared?

Toy: I was so excited, I lost focus and wasn’t paying attention to all hands. I would try to stay concentrated and not talk so much and look at what people are doing.

Bonus question from a club member in the top 5 in this years points race (Note: these are the types of incentives you get for performance and participation in this group) : Does John (Toy’s Husband) always have pocket kings when he goes all in?

Toy: He always gets beat with the pocket kings. He is a little bit scared of this hand.

Me: Thank you Toy for sitting down with me and good luck in your poker progression.

In other club news…

• I should have mentioned in the January WSOP purse allocation news that we will not be making up the cancelled tournaments that came about because of PokerStars updates. When we looked at historical data, we saw that we missed the same number of dates as we do in a normal year because we often miss a gmae or two because of a holiday. This year we didn’t miss because of any holiday so it worked out.

  
  However, beginning next points year (May, 2026), we will be using a backup client (ClubGG) and the times that a cancellation happens because of PokerStars software, we will be playing at the backup client and points will be accumulated during those weeks. So, if you get a chance, get a free ClubGG membership and please pick the same handle you use on Stars to make it easy on us bean counters.

  
  If there are more problems that cause cancellations in THIS fiscal year, we will deal with them as they come without ruling out the possibility of makeup tournament(s).

  
  More to come on this in the coming months.

• You may have noticed that our club has a new logo. If you like it and are interested in potential apparel, patches…..etc, let me know as I am considering some options.

Thankfully, we don’t have to learn this wonderful game in an hour. We have what is left of each of our lifetimes to discover, try, learn, and experiment. With that said, lets not waste the minutes directly in front of our faces. Lets learn more about playing a good small stack tournament strategy.

To begin, I would ask the question of what a short stack is. Through experience we figure that it is a time that we can’t splash around much and we feel the need to “pick a spot” to go all in. Why do we get this feeling? The basic answer is we “feel” our fold equity diminishing.

Fold equity is the amount of the pot that we win when we bet based on the percentage of times our opponents fold. When shoving all in over some limps or min raises, we will get our opponents to fold quite often if our stack threatens the health of our opponent’s stack when our opponent has a non premium holding. The biggest variables (that we can calculate) for the equation of folds to shoves is the amount we are able to shove for and the relative stack sizes.

Here are a couple examples that may clear this idea up as I believe most players intuitively understand this concept.

1. The HJ (30 bbs) opens to 2 BB, the button (25bbs) calls, and Hero goes all in for 12 bbs. In this scenario, the hero has a lot of fold equity as either opponent losing 12 bbs out of her stack is a big deal.

2. The UTG (65 bbs) opens to 2 BB, the button (40 bbs) calls, and Hero shoves all in for 5 bbs. This situation is much different. I would estimate hero’s fold equity to be something approaching zero.

These examples are a bit on the extreme side but hopefully the reader understands what is meant by fold equity and how it is a very important concept when discussing short stack strategy. It isn’t just how short a player is but also how relative that is to the other players at the table.

I have been at a final table with 4 people left and nobody had more than 7 bbs. This is definitely a case of poker bingo at that point. However any player with more than 2 bbs had some fold equity because of laddering in payouts and the ICM pressures associated.

Lets say you find yourself short in a much more conventional way. You have been card dead for the first 3 hours of the tournament and lost the 3 hands you did play. You find yourself with 10 bbs when the average is 45. What can you do in this situation? You can look up push / fold charts for the specific number of bbs you have when you are on break. These charts will give you a +ev answer and that is pretty awesome. Want to know something more awesome? Often another move is higher EV.

Lets say you are at a final table with 9 bbs and it folds to you in the SB and you look down at the black aces. If you memorized that push / fold chart and are committed to it, shoving the aces into the big blind player’s range is +EV. However, limping to induce is higher EV. The push / fold chart will only tell you what is best of the two options of pushing or folding. This chart may be simpler for our brains to remember but it doesn’t even consider the most superior option!

I get it. Sometimes we want to avoid having to make more tough decision postflop with a small stack. Perhaps we feel like we could be outplayed postflop by an opponent that has more skill. However, the truth is the more we seek the best line, the more we play post flop, and the more we see the more skilled player perform, the better we will be next time. Being uncomfortable is one of the best things you can do to improve your long term game. Being uncomfortable is an opportunity to grow as player and as a bonus you will become more comfortable doing it.

A couple misconceptions of short stacked play come from the position of Big Blind.

1. Sometimes you find yourself in the big blind with deplorable starting cards after an early position open and a BTN call. It may be tempting to put in the extra 1.3 bbs holding the T6o especially when you calculate your pot odds (almost 5.5 : 1 on a call in a BB ante format). This thinking is a mistake. You are in much better shape by folding your weak hand that will be very difficult to play postflop from the worst position even if you do get a piece of the flop.

2. Having just written the first scenario, it seems logical that the same would be true when you are only facing one opponent. Alas, when you are facing only one opponent you ARE incentivized to call with around 10 bbs. you aren’t getting quite the pot odds as you were in the last scenario (this time around 3.7 : 1) but you enjoy the tradeoff of being heads up. In this scenario, if you get a pair, you can pretty much just go with it for the rest of your stack and if you whiff the flop you fold and move on. Simple.

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Another specific situation heuristic you can use when you are very short stacked (2-3 bbs). In this scenario, if you find yourself UTG you can shove any 2 cards profitably. I would use the old satellite trick of closing your eyes when you “look at” your hole cards as to not sway you off your mission. It is important to feign looking at your cards to avoid being called even lighter by a person that knows you are shoving blind.

The reason this is a shove with any 2 is because you will have to pay the big blind ante next hand and therefore can’t “win” that ante from another stack as you can from UTG. This simple one big blind amount makes your entire range a shove.

To reiterate my poker mantra - pay attention - would be wise when discussing short stacks as well. Paying attention to who is paying attention will let you know who is aware of any laddering or ICM pressures and who isn’t. By paying attention, you can often pick up on a detail or two that could give you that extra edge to maximize your chance to get out of the short stack cellar. If the player to your left isn’t paying attention to your stack size and just playing the hands he likes, shoving from the button or small blind is like playing a game of chance that is often in your favor. So many opponents think along the lines of “I wouldn’t go all in without at least X hand, so I doubt this guy would either” without even bothering to consider the paltry number of big blinds you just pushed into the middle.

To say that there is a lot to consider when short stacked is to say it about any part of the game we love. We love it because its tough though. Lets embrace that it is hard and graduate from the “push and pray” mentality from previous decades and work to improve on the part of the game that we often find ourselves. After all, a few big blinds is worth a lot to a person watching from the rail.

Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed or got something from this, please consider cliking the like button below. If you have any questions, please email me at mikieculpepper@gmail.com

The time of year to announce our WSOP prize pool allocation is upon us. If you are new to the club, this is the time in our fiscal year that we have an idea of how much money we will have at the end of our points race - April 30th. As previously announced, we will have our drawing for $500 with each point serving as an entry into the drawing. However, the meat of the allocation goes into the expenses paid trip to Vegas for the WSOP.

The past couple years the prize pool has swelled to an amount that we felt should be distributed to more that one person taking the WSOP package as a whole. The compromise we found was second place taking $900 cash and the winner taking the rest to the desert.

The 2023 package was won by Joe Schwenk who took $3000, yours truly went in 2024 with $3750, and Dave Paukovitz took it down last year for $4230. Through these years the goal has been to offer opportunities to send club members on a trip that perhaps wouldn’t happen otherwise. The goal was never to enter a player into the Main Event or to give a percentage back to the club. It is simply to offer more experiences to our members.

If you have followed these newsletters for long - bless you - you know that a personal goal of mine has been to award multiple packages in a year and thus expanding the chances of this opportunity to each club member.

Well I am overwhelmed with excitement to announce that this is the year! The Freezeout Poker Club will be sending 2 of our players to Las Vegas this summer for some WSOP action.

Before I get into the details, let me say that this is because the members of this club. Your participation, recruitment, and feedback have made the growth of our membership and prize pool possible.

The first place an second place packages will, unfortunately, look very similar. We will take $500 for the drawing from the package total then divide the remainder by 2. This would give us 2 equal numbers. However, to create some modest delineation we will make the 1st prize slightly bigger. I decided that $30 times the number of points that separates 1st from 2nd place in points should do the trick.

Lets give an example and hopefully this we be more clear. Say the total prize pool comes to $6500. From this we take the $500 for the drawing - of which the 1st and 2nd place players are ineligible. That leaves us with $6000 to split between the 2 prizes. Lets assume that 1st place is leading by 10 points - as is currently the case. take the 10 points times $30 would equal to $300. 1st place prize would pay $300 more than the 2nd place so $6000 would break into $3150 and $2850 respectively.

The past 2 years we have stated that the winner must spend $2000 on WSOP bracelet event buyins. That seems a bit too restictive for prizes of this size considering these funds need to provide for airfare and lodging for the recipient. Therefore, we will be reducing the obligation to $800 in WSOP bracelet buyins. This should give our winning players plenty of opportunities to find a buyin this summer that works for them.

I do want to note that it is not lost on me that our current leader Chris Lannoye (ToyCollector) has a sizeable lead. This announcement is meant in no way as a reaction to that lead. If anyone has been deserving of a large merit based prize package it is this man for the way he has destroyed all of us on the virtual felt thus far.

This is just the timing that works for the growth and direction of this club and was going to happen at some point.

I hope that everyone participates and does their best to make a run at one of these prize packages and be sure to watch the leaderboard as we finish out these last 3 months!

In related news, I just got word from Joe Schwenk that our game tomorrow (2/3/26) will start at 6:00 pm central due to a PokerStars system update later that night. There will be a 1 hour late registration so please keep this time change in mind.

While I am at addressing the Club, I want to remind you that Joe, Jonathan, and I will be going over ideas and suggestions for changes next year (May 2026 - April 2027). I always ask for input before our annual meeting in March but am happy to hear from you anytime of the year. If you have something you would like for us to discuss as a potential change or suggestion, please let me know at mikieculpepper@gmail.com. We already have a few suggestions that I really like and want to hear some more. It’s your club. Tell us what you want to see.

The Dinner Party

Imagine going to a get together at a friend’s house. There will be around 10 people there all of which you know quite well. Consider the conversation you would anticipate. Maybe you would bring some of that new home brew you just finished so your friends could discuss while sampling it. Maybe you want to remember to ask you friend Nancy if she would mind tutoring your son in algebra. Perhaps you have an adult joke prepared for your friend Bill who is always up for a raunchy laugh.

The conversations you are going to have are going to be familiar, casual, and come with ease. This is, of course, because you know these people well. You know the subject matter that is expected and you know to avoid the odd sensitive subject if necessary. You are prepared because you know your audience.

The Gala

Now let’s change the venue, personel, and expectations to those with less certainty. You are invited to a formal Gala at which there will be dozens of strangers in a space that is not familiar to you.

How will this conversation differ? Well it is likely that you will try to be balanced with your subject matter and inflection at least until you are able to read the room a bit. Until you get a handle on who you enjoy conversing with by broaching topics in which you find you are both interested, like, or dislike, you are likely to keep it to a simple baseline communication.

Just because we aren’t as comfortable with this baseline conversation, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t work on doing the best we can under these circumstances especially since this is the “me” that is responsible for leaving a first impression.

Enter Poker

This little exercise - hopefully - sheds a bit of light on the idea that we shouldn’t pigeonhole ourselves as “this type” or “that type” of person when we are ultimately the same person. We are simply operating under different circumstances.

In poker, we often hear players describe themselves or others as exloitative {intuitive, trusts his gut, plays by feel} or GTO {balanced, computer like, math heavy} players. In this short essay I hope to show that we are - or should be - both.

“This guy never 3 bet bluffs!”

We have all been at the card room and thought “This guy only raises when he has a premium” , “ I have never seen this lady bluff.”, or “This person shoves too wide at less than 15 big blinds.”

These observations - and the many more we make every time we play - are about being aware of what we perceive about another player’s weakness or imbalanced strategy. If we act on these observations, we are attempting to exploit that player’s tendancies in that situation.

An observant player is making these adjustments almost constantly. If your reads are correct - or are at least more correct than incorrect - it behooves you to make these observations and play exploitatively against these opponents.

If we are able to make adjustments to our game to improve our chance for success, what is the baseline from which we are adjusting? In other words, if we don’t see an exploitable tendancy in our opponent’s game, what does our play look like?

The answer to this varies tremendously from player to player. However, ideally, it should be a balanced strategy that figures in position, stack sizes, ranges, pot odds, and of course our actual cards and blocking effects therein.

It turns out that there is a correct answer that figures in all of these data points. It is Game Theory Optimal play.

Game Theory Optimal (GTO)

Game Theory is the study of decision making when the outcome depends on the decisions of other interactive factors and people. Game Theory is used in everything from business, to games, to military conflicts.1

Poker is a fantastic case study in game theory. This is because it is so interactive with concepts such as mental leveling, bluffing, and player profiling.

GTO factors in the concept of strategic interaction which accounts for the expectation of an opponent or opponents counter strategy.

In simpler terms what should player 1 do knowing that player 2 is also thinking and reacting to what player 1 may or may not do?

“This sounds great! Let’s play like that.” you may say. If only!

The Texas Holdem game tree is much too complicated for any human to master even when it comes to Limit Holdem. Once you add the various bet sizes of No Limit Holdem to the equation, the task seems impossible.

If your enthusiasm has dwindled and your inner voice now sounds more like “Great. Why did you even bring it up?”, then worry not as you can rest assured that your opponents can not replicate GTO either.

To not try our best to improve our baseline game simply because it is hard is akin to quitting. Perhaps it’s probably best to imagine our improvement a race that will never be completely finished. That said, being ahead of your opponents is probably more important anyhow.

What type of player am I?

The debate of GTO vs. Exploitative is simply a misunderstanding of style. If you have a quality exploit against your opponent, use it. In this situation, it’s the smartest move you can make.

If you don’t have an exploit, you don’t have a good reason to leave your baseline game. Which begs this question….

What are you doing to improve your baseline game? You should be studying. Most of that studying is going to involve range charts, odds, combinations, and other GTO concepts. In this situation, it’s the smartest move you can make.

I really appreciate the likes and the feedback I have received from the past few newsletters. If you enjoyed this edition or found it informative, please consider liking by clicking the heart icon below. If you have any questions or need clarification, lets start by sharing a comment below or shooting me an email. Thank you all - as always - for reading.

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The things you need to improve your poker game come down to brains, time, money, and educational content.

If you are reading this, I think it is safe to say that you have a brain. Congratulations. Because you have a brain, you have the ability to “hit the books” and study.

To be sure, to be able to study, you need to find the time. If something is important though, we find the time. You’re reading this newsletter so you must have, at least a little free time.

Which brings us to number three..... money. A lot of us spend some of our entertainment budget on playing poker. Sometimes it’s hard to justify spending more on learning how to do something you are already doing and spending money on! Well, if this is a sticking point for you, I’ve got your back. We are going to list some free (yes FREE) sources for studying NLH.

First, let’s hit some phone applications. Whenever I am waiting whether it be in a doctors office, restaurant, tire shop, or wherever, I have my phone on me and can mess around with one of these free apps because - lets face it - that’s where we find ourselves when we find a couple free minutes.

• Preflop+ - This app is great in that you can study GTO preflop decisions finding Nash Equilibrium, Equity realization, range application, pot odds, and combination drills all in one app. Only 5 drills on each subject are allowed daily in the free version but that is actually a lot of free study. It takes me about 10 minutes to get through the free stuff each day. Preflop is the most important part of your game. Don’t neglect it!

• Postflop+ - This sister app to Preflop+ takes you to three free heads up hands each day. You are making decisions on the flop, turn, and river. You get to see how far you are straying from Game Theory Optimal. This is the app I find myself opening more often than any other.

• GTO Preflop - This drill based app lets you pick your position and quizzes you on whether to raise, fold, or call based on prior action. It also allows you to run the drill on 3 betting mode. One of the great things about this app is that it doesn’t limit the amount of time you can spend on it in a day. The downside is it is 6-max based and doesn’t offer full 9 player mode.

• SnapShove - We all find ourself in shove mode sometimes due to our dwindling stack. It would be nice to be reassured that our shoves are GTO approved for the situation. Well check out the SnapShove app. This app allows you to visualize Shove / Fold decisions at a 9 player table. It takes away a non all in raise and just gives you the best decision of whether to go all in or fold when first to act. This is a handy tool that I have used when on break in a tournament with a sub 10 big blind stack.

• GTO Lookup - If charts are your thing, download GTO Lookup and wear your eyes out on these charts representing RFI and 3 betting from 8 positions. This is a really powerful tool that also allows you to run a sim a day using set cards or ranges with random flops.

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High tech isn’t for everyone though. Some people are readers. Here are some free substacks and subscription emails that are delivered right to your inbox.

• Staying right here in Substack, I would suggest subscribing to Range Advantage. is a good pro with a knack for explaining poker strategy both in lay terms and deep into the nooks and crannies of solverland. Whenever he posts, it’s a must read for me. I seem to learn something valuable everytime and can’t wait for the next one.

• Also on Substack, writes his Punt of the Day. Sam writes about a punt of his own or one that he saw recently on the high roller circuit at which his game resides. He posts a new edition everyday for his subscribers. A free subscription gets you one POTD per week. Mr. Greenwood is a good writer and very funny, however, as a fair warning, the poker content and breakdowns are not for the weak. If you want to know how players at nosebleed events like Triton think about this game, delve into a few of these and it will really open your eyes - or perhaps make them bloodshot with exhaustion and resignation.

• SimplifyPoker.com - Dara O’Kearney is one of the best coaches out there and he sends an email once a week to the subscribers. Just log in at the website and the emails will come. Also, these guys aren’t scammers, you can unsubscribe anytime.

• JakaCoaching.com - tons of free stuff plus you can sign up for the emails which are quite good. Just create a free login and you will get the emails about twice a month. With your free subscription, you get a bunch of free quizzes and even some free courses.

• PokerCoaching.com - There is a free area with range charts and some courses available at: https://cardplayer.pokercoaching.com/courses/browse/free/. This includes a course called “Mastering the Fundamentals” that I would recommend for those looking for a solid stepping stone.

If you are more of a listener, perhaps a podcast will be your ticket to learning on the go. Here are a list of my favorites. Keep in mind, I primarily play MTTs so this list is going to lean toward the tournament player.

• The Chip Race - This one annually wins the best poker podcast award. It is a great production. It has strategy but also delves into the poker news and subject matter of the day. Dara O’Kearney and David Lappin host this Irish based show.

• Thinking Poker - Andrew Brokos is a poker genius. Along with his partner Carlos Welch, they break down scenarios in a strategy segment typically followed by an interview with someone from the poker world.

• Thinking Poker Daily - This is from the guys at Thinking Poker but it exclusively discusses strategy. You can sign up on Patreon for at different levels for different number of days a week of strategy. For the free membership, you get a new 10 minute stategy segment every Saturday and Sunday plus you unlock the free content from the previous years.

• Red Chip - The guys at Red Chip aren’t putting out too many free podcasts these days but their library is a gold mine of free information and strategy. Each cast is labeled for the subject matter discussed as well.

• Tournament Poker Edge - is a comedian and a very good poker player that takes you through some hands and situations he has been in lately.

• RecPoker Podcast - I have just started listening to these guys and I am going to add it to this list. I have been able to glean a bit of knowledge from the strategy editions. The good thing about Rec is these guys are exclusively talking about the types of tournaments - buyin size wise - that I am playing. They also have an interactive website at Rec.Poker.

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Comprensive study destinations aren’t typically cheap or easy to compare. However, when offered a free one…… it should be easy to say yes!

#[Large Blinking Sign that reads: “Pay Attention to What is Written Next”]#

• SolveForWhy - To be blunt, I am probably not doing this update if I didn’t just get the word that this entire site membership is now FREE. This is a very good - perhaps great - training site. When you get full courses, classes, videos and other content - for which people a short time ago were paying hundreds of dollars a year - offered to you for free - DO IT. As a huge bonus, poker master Andrew Brokos was a major contributor to this site and has a lot of great video content within.

I hope you find something that works well for you and your schedule among this list of things I use or have used. But this dog likes new tricks too. If you have a spot where you get free poker strategy content, please share it in the comments section or email me as I would love to take a look.

If you enjoyed this newsletter or found it useful, please consider liking by clicking the heart icon below. Thanks for reading!

With the anticipation of a new year, are we putting the old one in the trophy case or the rubbish bin? Well, from the Freezeout Poker Club perspective, it’s definately one for the case albeit not the center of the top shelf.

• 2025 brought us many new, consistent, responsible players. Player recruitment is the lifeblood of any indefinitely continuous activity. Thank you for all of our recruiters out there including a special thanks to Joe Schwenk and Dave Paukovitz this year. I love getting record crowds on a Tuesday. What I love even more are the weeks where everyone paid on time. It makes paying the prize pool seamless and easy. So a special thank you to all of you who are with this program.

• We also brought our newsletter to Substack. While I try to give the same quality newsletter to our club as before, we now have a newsletter subscription base that extends beyond our players. I’m hopeful that adding content for others will - organically - help build our game while making connections beyond.

• We had a new player win the player of the year WSOP package. Congratulations again to Mr. Paukovitz for bagging the largest monetary package yet.

• Joe and Joey Schwenk played a Tag Team event at Firekeepers this year and the Father & Son team took it down. Congratulations to Team Schwenk.

On a personal note, the First Lady and I final tabled a tournament in San Antonio to start 2025 off right. It made it so much more fun having my best friend with which to to share that experience even though she got the first place money and I had to settle for 4th.

I was also able to play in my first seniors event at the WSOP and played some of my best poker, brought some cash back to my bankroll, and bounced a Poker Hall of Famer from the tournament to boot.

After we cram our own personal last year where we feel it belongs, our focus should shift to the future and what we hope to claim as accomplishment in 2026. It seems to me that the best way to prepare is by setting goals for our poker year.

I would advise anyone who will listen to keep goals measureable. What I mean by this is don’t set a goal of winning a WSOP bracelet, winning our club Player of the Year, or making $5000. These goals - while worthy - are not good measuring sticks of personal improvement due to the nature of the high variance of tournament poker.

Examples of measureable goals would include: Play the Tuesday game 40 times next year, read 2 poker strategy books, or study NLH for an hour each week.

An example of a goal I accomplished over the past few years was writing in my journal every buyin, place, and prize for every tournament I enter. Not only does this keep me grounded when I feel like I am on a burst of wins, it also helps to boost my confidence when I am in the midst of a downswing. Being able to look back through the months and get a real picture on how well I am doing gives me the perspective that my memory simply can’t because of one bias or another.

My goals for 2026 include:

• Study for at least 2 hours each week

• Play our local live game when available and fresh enough

• Play in our Tuesday game 45 times

• Go to a regional nightly in Houston 5 times

• Go to a circuit event of any series

• Attend the WSOP.

• Write 25 of these newsletters.

Let me know what goals you plan on setting for you poker world in 2026 and lets see if we can hold each other accountable.

If you enjoy reading this newsletter, please consider liking it by clicking the “heart” below. It helps more than you may think. Thanks for reading.

Table Presence

Sit down in a live poker tournament and it will be obvious to you who the new player is. He forgets the BB ante - fumbles with his chips - asks if the over sized chip is a raise. He is new to live play. There isn’t anything wrong with that as we were all new to live poker at one time or another. However, if you aren’t noticing the lack of experience from this player, it may be you who lacks experience at the table.

Be careful with this information as this player isn’t necessarily a bad player. There are plenty of online regs that have felt the need or desire to dip their foot in the live waters. There are also some players that try to forward an image that isn’t honest. Only a portion of the estimated weight of your “read” should be placed on the proverbial scale that would balance this situation. Sometimes we try to over exploit a read on a situation only to have it backfire on us. This is because every time we veer from a balanced strategy we open ourselves up to be exploited.

In this installment, we will discuss concepts to be aware of while sitting at the table and how to take advantage of them while limiting our exposure of being taken advantage.

Table presence begins with being present. Being present is a big part of meditation. It grounds us and helps us achieve our goals by implementing the aspects of the game that we have studied so hard away from the table.

When I am at the table, I try to keep good posture. This helps me in several ways. It keeps my back inline which is a good healthy habit. It keeps me from changing my posture mid hand - we have all seen the slouch at the table suddenly sit up in his seat when he looks at hole cards that he is very interested in. Most importantly, while I keep good posture, it is easier for me to be mentally and physically present. This includes being in flow with my timing and movements.

When I keep good posture, I am able to watch the action without shifting my body around. I can keep an eye on the action and make my actions while basically only moving my head, one arm, and a hand. Finding rhythm and flow - I find - keep me from figiting in my seat, shaky hands, irregular breathing patterns, and unnecessary facial expressions. Not only are these things unwanted signs for my opponents to read. I end up paying attention to my unwanted bodily reactions instead of focusing my attention on the game and my opponents.

Along these lines, it is also important know what you want to do before you do it. I see players that look like they are ready to fold then decide to call. Unless I read that this player is being tricky, I see this as weakness that doesn’t want to fold quite yet. When a non scare card hits the board next, I green light myself to bet again on the next street and take down the pot no matter what I have.

To avoid this fate, know what you are going to do before you make a physical action.(i.e. mentally decide to bet 2500 on this betting round BEFORE reaching for the chips). When you do make the physical motion, repeat the same movements each time you make that action. There isn’t a good reason to place chips in the pot with your right hand and then switch to your left hand later. Get a system and stick with it.

Timing is another variable of your game that you should try to control. If your opponent sees you call a bet quickly, she may infer that you didn’t even consider raising. This caps your range - at least in her eyes - and changes the game tree for the rest of the hand. By trying to take a similar amount of time with your decisions, your opponent will not be able to box you in to a draw or capped range.

Even preflop - take 3-5 seconds to make your decision. This is about the same amount of time it should take to decide to call or raise and doesn’t slow the game down significantly.

When facing a bet and deciding to fold, don’t let your opponent off the hook immediately either. Think about the times that you make a river bet bluff and your opponent tanks. This probably makes you feel uncomfortable. Well…. you want your opponents to feel the same way as much as possible. They are going to win this hand but you are going to give them a feeling that they don’t necessarily want to feel in the next hand against you.

Being polite at the table is always a good idea. However, being polite and being a pushover are 2 different things. When you start getting talked up, have a plan to not share more than you would like. When someone thinks they have a skill advantage over his table mates, that’s when it is in his favor to talk the table up. Finding out someone’s hometown lets him know how far you traveled and whether this is a destination tournament for you - and therefore perhaps you are reluctant to bust.

Finding out if a man is married, lets the questioner know that the man has someone whom he may want to impress or be held accountable to when it comes to cashing the tournament. These pressures can be used at appropriate times to a person’s advantage. If it is almost the end of the night and you know your opponent has a flight tomorrow, it is you that should be careful. This person is likely to get very cozy with risk towards the end of the session when you hear him say something like: “If I have to change my plane ticket and get another hotel night, I may as well have chips for tomorrow”.

So how can we avoid sharing more than we want? Pretending to not speak English well is a good way as long as you don’t mind the discomfort when the talker finds out otherwise when your friends sidle up to the table. Bringing headphones is another way but keep you from hearing everything being said at the table. I think earbuds that aren’t being used are one of the best ways. Just make sure to feign annoyance each time you “have to” take one out of your ear to hear the speaker.

Sometimes you find yourself in a poker tournament in a great situation. You have the chip lead, the aggressive players are to your right, and people are respecting your opens and 3 bets.

Too often though, the situation isn’t as rosy. When the aggression - and big stacks - are on your left and big bets are flying left and right and you are stuck with an average stack, things can feel bleak. Rest assured there are tweaks you can make in every situation. Tighten up your opening range, sizing up a bit, and targeting the more passive players after the aggros have folded are great ways to handle this. The key is to slow down your play. Literally. When in a tough situation, you want to see as few hands as possible in this lineup. When we slow things down, a few good things can happen while seeing fewer hands than we would have at our normal cadence. I wouldn’t advise overdoing this. Maybe increase your action time from 3 seconds to a 7 second count. This doesn’t sound like much but people sometimes fall in line with timing and It makes you “feel” like you are doing something active to address your situation.

Keep an eye on the pattern which they are breaking tables. Typically larger number tables are broken and the field is condensed into the smaller numbered tables. Sometimes, its breaking tables on one side of the room in favor of the other side. Just keep an eye on the general pattern and how much longer you are likely to be in your current situation.

When it is obvious that your table will be broken next, slow playing early positions and fast playing late positions makes the most sense in order to maximize the possibility that you avoid playing from the big blind more than is absolutely necessary.

On the other hand, when we do find ourselves in a good situation, we want to keep the fun rolling and see as many hands in this configuration as possible.

Sometimes we come across an angle shooter or a rude person at the table. I suggest handling these things as necessary and depending on the intent. Never be afraid to call the floor on someone you think is taking advantage of the rules, the dealer, or other opponents. If someone does something that you think is wrong, ask the dealer if it is allowed. If the dealer has lost control of the table and or the aggressor, call the floor and register your verbal complaint. At the very least, the aggresor will know that people at the table are watching and listening.

Keep in mind that sometimes the person not following protocol simply is new to the game. Perhaps they don’t know to put the big chips on top or that you shouldn’t fold out of turn. I find that keeping quiet and letting others correct the new player is less confrontation and opponents that correct or “help” others are a breed that can be profiled as well.

Making sure we are telling the story we want with our presence at the table and not sharing our insecurities, fears, and unpleasant thoughts is a big part of the live game.

Without saying a word - tell you opponents you are dialed in, prepared, fearless, and smart by showing your prowess with your nonverbal actions and table presence.

These above motivations are the reason I have subconciously worked on my grammar, diction, enunciation, and punctuation. These “English” skills are symptoms and byproducts of my motivations to be a better communicator not the driver.

Poker is much the same way. When we are starting out, the coolers and 2 outers upset us because our tournament demise was “against the odds”. As we mature through age and experience, we realize that worrying - or even reacting - about such things is a waste of our time. I will spend a lot more time contemplating a potential mistake that I made in a hand over an unfortunate runout because I have some control over the first and zero over the latter. I can learn from mistakes. I have yet to figure out how to learn anything meaningful from luck or the lack thereof.1

It should come as no shock that communicating a hand to a friend, coach, or peer is a learning curve as well. Once we understand that telling a bad beat story is of no use to the teller or the listener, we can - hopefully - close the door on that time vaccum and move on to communications that can help our game.

A few months back I wrote about Building a Team and the importance of discussing your game. While I believe in everthing I penned, it doesn’t help much when you want to ask your teammate if you played a hand appropriately if you don’t know all the information she would need.

While this list may sound daunting - depending on the checklist in your head each hand - if you practice it enough, all the information will reveal itself as important. Once you get the gist of it, you will begin noticing when other people tell hands that lack complete information and why that information is important.

When reviewing a tournament poker hand, the following information should ALWAYS be conveyed: Tournament Structure, Position, Stack Sizes (in Big Blinds), Blind Level, and Action.

Tournament Structure is an important piece of information and I think it should be the first piece of information with which to frame the entire hand. For instance, if a person comes to me with a hand and he starts the conversation with “This is a $1100 WPT Prime championship tournament with 40 minute blinds….. “, I am going to have a lot different picture in my head than if he started with “ I was in a $75 daily at Planet Hollywood and rebuys are still available….”. What’s more, in many cases the advice on the hand I would give would be different from the first scenario to the other. This is largely because the level of seriousness of the player pool will be different and the level of competition will be vastly different.

Position is probably the most important aspect of this game at stacks of over 30 big blinds. When reviewing a hand, the position of the hero and the villian(s) are going to matter a lot. Because opening ranges change with positions, a telling of a hand where “UTG opens the action to 2.2x and I called from the Button.” is quite different than “Cutoff (CO) opens the action to 2.2x and I called from the Button.” Because the UTG opening range is so much tighter, Button needs to have a servicable hand. In the latter scenario, Button can play back against the Cutoff much wider as the CO has a fairly wide range including some attempts to steal the blinds. Position matters. A lot.

Stack Sizes are probably the 2nd most important aspect of telling a hand and the one that gets fumbled the most. Let’s face it, it’s hard to remember that “I started with 59,000 in chips and villian had 37,000 making him the effective stack”. The key is to have a good idea of stack sizes of yourself and all your opponents. You’re not going to be exactly right every time but if you are considering who has you covered and what “place” you are in at your table, it will get you to paying attention to such things.

A suggestion I make to everyone playing tournament poker is to keep track of stacks in Big Blinds rather than chip count. There is some rounding up or down but it is much easier to know what to do with 12 BBs than 765,000 chips. Stack health and therefore action are typically decided using Big Blinds (or perhaps M). Therefore, we should probably communicate that way.

Communicating the Blind Level when the hand occured is important. If you tell me “Villian open raised to 5K from UTG+2 and it folded to me in the CO……”, I may assume the blinds are 1k-2k-2k but perhaps he is a maniac that is raising 5x at 500-1k-1k. These differences should affect hero’s calling and 3 betting range and will make his folding range much bigger in the second scenario.

Action is the component that nobody forgets to tell. I have heard a misremembering of the action many times but I have never heard “We were playing in a $400 WSOPC late level and I had 20 bbs vs villians 30 bbs. I lost.” Why do we never make this mistake? I think it is because we believe the action is the most important part of the hand and we would rather make it up than tell a story that doesn’t include it. The key is to get it right. If you forget that there was a 3 bet preflop or that the turn checked through, nobody is going to be able to give you a good answer on your actions.

That being the case and us not all having a photographic memory, how do we get all this right? The answer is to write it down. Jonathan Little tells us how he does it in this video. None of us want to be the nerd at the table - but get this straight, the people that are tournament crushers at the highest stakes are all nerds. If you don’t want to carry a notebook and pen, fret not as you likely have a recording device in the form of a phone at the ready. Just make sure you get the essentials down either by your voice in a recording or by your thumbs in notes.

I understand that the moment you lose a big pot is not the moment that you want to relive it and document it. However doing so will help in the short and the long run. By documenting the hand, you can allow yourself to move on to the next hand as you have essentially told yourself: “I will address this hand later for potential mistakes and I allow myself to let it go for now…. back to poker.” In the long run, you will get feedback on the hand and how you played it. If you made no mistakes, you can just let it go. If you made a mistake, no problem, now you can adjust in an effort to avoid that type of error in the future.

It’s also important to question your actions often. It doesn’t have to be a hand where you lost a big pot. Let’s say you call a 3 bet all in from out of position with AJo and win the hand. Well perhaps you want some clarity on that hand as well. This is a good time to note the hand and discuss with your coach or team.

Now we have gone over the musts for hand analysis. However there are other considerations that you should often state in your hand recap. Reads on villian, Tournament Structure, and ICM implications are a few.

Reads on Villian shouldn’t be overused. The idea that he was scratching his nose when he put in the raise likely has no bearing on the hand. However, if he has open raised 40% of the hands so far in the tournament and you are an hour in, it can be assummed that he is being aggresive with a wide range. This is the type of read that you should be looking for. Another is something you hear the player say. If you hear him say to his wife that his overall goal is to make day 2, that can be used against him and may sway the diagnosis of a hand against this person.

Tournament Structure is important in that having 15 minute blind levels is much different than having 1 hour blinds. The workability of a shorter stack changes a lot based on this structure. It could also be helpful if the blinds are going up momentarily. For instance “ The blinds were 500-1k-1k but were going to 1k-2k-2k the next hand and I had 12,000 with is 12 bigs but will be 6 momentarily…”

ICM implications. This is most powerful when on the money bubble or at the final table. On the bubble, the big stack at the table is likely to be more aggressive than average, the middle stacks will be much tighter, and the short stacks will be a bit tighter than typical. This information is important when sharing a hand because it changes the ranges of ALL players in one way or another. Because of this change to every player at the table, the stack sizes of ALL the players are important especially when short handed.

The bottom line is telling a complete story of what actually happened. It’s the only way that the person or persons from which we are seeking help will be able to analyze and give feedback that is worth receiving.

In an effort to give you an example, I will share a hand I had 18 months ago:

This hand is from a $2500 NLH tournament at the 2024 WSOP in Las Vegas. Reentries are closed and there are 525 players left of the 2250 entries. WSOP payed 15% that year so the bubble will happen around 340 players. WSOP mincash is typically 2x buyin.

The Blinds were 2k-5k-5k and I was working with a stack of 137k for a little over 27 BBs. I opened UTG to 10k with the KsQc. The action folded around to the button (245K) who called. The Small Blind folded and the Big Blind (75k) called. We will go 3 to the flop.

A note here that I know that the Button player is Mike Holtz. He is a solid mid stakes pro that has a good handle on what he is doing.

The Flop comes Jc2d4h.
BB cks, Hero cks, BTN bets 6k.
BB calls, Hero calls.

I made a note here that everone in the hand was taking his time and assumably thiniking before acting throught the hand.

The Turn card is the Qs.
BB cks, Hero cks, BTN bets 16k.
BB calls, Hero calls.

I was very happy to see this queen fall on the turn and the spade guaranteed there would be no backdoor flush. I debated betting it when it was on me. Instead, I decided that I would check it to Mike and hope that he would bet it again. My plan was to check raise him all in if he bet 15k - 40k. My delight - and plan - turned to debate when the BB called the 16k. I hadn’t planned for this and decided to simply call the 16k. My concern was for sets especially from the BB.

The River is the 5c.
BB cks, Hero cks, BTN (looks at my stack of 105k) bets 101k.
BB folds quickly, Hero tank calls.

When the 5 hits the river, I have some concern that the BB could have the wheel or I would have led this river. I stared Mike down before checking to him. Once he bets this size he polarizes to something pretty nutty or nothing at all. I know he is a good player and he is going to find some bluffs (or should) here. As far as value goes, I think A3 especially suited makes sense as does QJ. In the end, I felt like I under represented my hand and, while it is close, I should at least consider calling.

That’s the end of the story I need to tell my peers about this hand in order to get quality answers. Notice that the outcome of the hand isn’t really that important to the analysis and withholding it - at least temporarily - may garner more thoughtful feedback.

If you have any questions on communicating poker, hit me up in the comments or shoot me a line. If you want to know the outcome of the Holtz hand, I would be glad to give it to you ….. AFTER you tell me how you would have played it on each street. Let’s exercise that brain!

Club announcement: Because of the problems that were discussed in last weeks newsletter regarding PokerStars software, we asking club members to join ClubGG as a FREE member. Please do not pay anything as it isn’t necessary. If you join, please join club ID#516619. The club is titles Freezeout Poker.

We are not moving and this is not yet an official backup should there be a problem with Stars. However, I would like to get a few members and run a simulation tournament sometime soon to test the software. If it works to plan, we would institute this new club as an official backup plan for the rest of the coming season and I would feel comfortable paying out with money and points as with Stars.

We aren’t there yet but please join now and we can find out together. More info to come on dates and time for a simulation. You can join and play via your computer or device. Thank you for your time on this. If you have any questions or are having trouble, please email me at MikieCulpepper@gmail.com.

There are now a lot subscribers to this newsletter that are not in our poker club. Because of the Beginner Series and the postings on substack we have gained a lot of subscribers that have never played our Tuesday game. That’s ok. Welcome. I like the idea of expanding our reach to interested poker players even if they aren’t potential club members. However, if you are interested in playing our weekly game (the crux of the club), or just learning more about it, please visit the about page on the top of the page or click this link: About our game.

I say all this to warn the reader that today’s content is specific to our game and may not be of great interest to you. If this is the case, please tune in for future columns that are broader in poker scope.

Name: Chris Lannoye
Handle: Toy Collector
Pet Hand: Nunya bizness
Favorite Author: Bill Bryson

Me: Thank you for taking the time to speak with me. I know you have only been a member for around a year so I’m not sure I have done many interviews in that time. You are my guinea pig for bringing back the player profiles.

Me: So how did you find our club?

Chris: Michael Thurston (MuskieMan) turned me on to your game. His daughter is dating my son. I was a little hesitant at first with Venmo and all but he put me at ease and I figured the worst that could happen would be I lose $25. But I have had a lot of fun and look forward to it each week.

Me: I completely understand about your initial hesitations. I am on the other side of it wondering if we can trust new players. I guess both sides just have to feel it out. That’s why we try to grow the group in a steady and organic way. I would like to take the time to thank Muskie for recruiting to our game. I sometimes wish he would recruit players that are not as good as you but, hey, that makes us all have to get better as well.

Me: When did you start playing poker?

Chris: I started playing post Moneymaker at a game while working at General Motors. I got my butt kicked left and right but it was a way to get my feet wet.

Me: What do you do for a living Chris?

Chris: I’m a pharmaceutical engineer

Me: I’m trying to imagine the need for a pharmaceutical engineer at GM.

Chris: (laughs) – My degree is in chemical engineering. I was hired to formulate auto paints. Once you get hired though, you end up doing a little bit of everything including programming the robots as a process engineer.

Me: Are you still in that line of work?

Chris: I’m mostly installing laboratories and industrial equipment for different industries for another company these days.

Me: We are halfway through this season and you are standing at 28 points. Just to put that into perspective, last year at this time, Joe Schwenk was leading the pack with 20 points and our eventual winner, Dave Paukovitz, had 14 points. That’s half of where you are at!

Chris: You are going to jinx me.

Me: That isn’t the intention but would be a great side effect for those of us chasing you. What I really want to know is if you have thought about winning a package to the WSOP and if that’s something you are striving for each week as it is a real possibility. Pauko won last year with 36 total points.

Chris: Absolutely. I really want to win a trip out to Vegas. I have never played in a “big” tournament. It would mean a lot to me for sure.

Me: I would imagine so if that’s the case. If you do win a package, perhaps you would do another interview with me or do a guest column on your experience. *eyes shift toward Mr. Paukovitz. *

Me: Do you study the game?

Chris: Not really. I’m not a big reader but I read the club blog and watch videos on YouTube. I really like watching Daniel Negreanu’s videos and especially his summer Vlog.

Me: Those are fun to watch. Are you looking for more poker games? You can always search Poker Atlas and perhaps find something near you.

Chris: I wasn’t aware of that site but I will check it out. I have to be careful because if I play too much, I will get impatient with it. If I stick with a limited amount of exposure to the game, I can keep my patience. If I have patience, I don’t play shit hands and I usually do well. If I’m impatient, I lose almost every time.

Me: Do you have a pet hand?

Chris: * Laughs * I do but I’m not going to tell you my secrets!

Me: Fair play. However, give me something that seems to be helping you this season.

Chris: Ok. While we are playing, I am walking on my treadmill the whole time. I go 9 miles each tournament. I am dripping wet by the time we are done. Apparently working out while playing works well for me.

Me: Thank you for taking the time to answer these question Chris! I’m sorry that I have to cut this short - I have to head out to buy a treadmill. I will see you on Tuesday.

Chris: See you then.

My Stars!

Tuesday the 4th marked the 3rd tournament that we had to cancel because of PokerStars updates. The problem is they do any necessary updates on Tuesdays in what is our evening. I suppose the interruptions we face are dictated by the number of times Stars needs to do an update.

To say that this is annoying me is a massive understatement but as they provide their software to us for free, I would imagine it to be a moot point to complain to the folks at Stars. The problems that arise from this (other than not being able to play our beautiful weekly game) are primarily WSOP prize package based.

Every opportunity to play a tournament is an opportunity to gather points and each week is assumed to bring that opportunity. However, as we trim those opportunities, the benefit goes to those who need not gather points (AHEM….I’m not speaking of anyone in particular ;) ). It also isn’t quite fair to do a makeup tournament on another day as some of our players may not be able to attend simply because they can not play on an alternate day of the week.

As an administrator of the group, it has long been my goal to have 2 prize packages at the end of the year. This is making that goal more difficult to achieve as well because of the potential deficit of funds.

A few suggestions have been floated to make our year whole including: Running the makeup weeks into the next season or hosting 2 tournaments at once on predetermined Tuesdays down the stretch (essentially multi-tabling). The reality is it is hard to make these up in a fair way while acknowledging that missing tournament is, in itself, unfair to members.

With this in mind, we will try to make the most fair decisions we can when it comes to this issue. I assure you that whatever decisions are to be made will be made by the end of January and be announced when the prize divisions are announced. That way everyone is on the same page going down the stretch.

As far as future seasons go, we are looking at the possibility of having a backup host (perhaps GGPoker) for the Tuesdays that get canceled or even, perhaps, changing our day of play.

If you have any suggestions, please let me know in the comments or shoot me an email.

For now though, until you hear something new, I hope to see you all on Tuesday at 7:00 Central on PokerStars. Thank you for your understanding.

Ride the Blue Wind High and Free…..

We lost one of our best. He was funny as hell, nice as can be, and a damn good poker player. Rex Bell - StarBockBeer saw his river card last weekend and his battle with cancer came to an end. I was very fortunate to have known his kindness, talent, and generosity of time when I did this interview with him last year.

Rex finished tied for 2nd place in the points last year despite missing many tournaments due to his illness. Heck he is only 4 points out of second place THIS year and definitely missed more than he attended.

We will miss you dearly my friend.

The “other” Toy

Last year, when making the decision on who to give the “up and comer” award, I was torn between Chris Lannoye (Toy Collector) and Toy Saenkham (Little Toy). At that time they were both overperforming for their amount of experience. The award went to Little Toy and for reasons gone over at great length in this very newsletter, a cloud of regret has hung over the part of my mind that hands out awards.

Weep not for me, as that dark cloud has dissipated and has been replaced by the confidence that I do have some good judgement left.

Toy won a major satellite on ClubWPTGold that puts her in the WPT Prime event in Las Vegas at the Wynn on December 7th. She bested 600 opponents to finish first of the 5 seats awarded. Not only is this feat very admirable, the ticket she won is a mid stakes tournament grinder’s dream with a retail price tag of $1100.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that, in my opinion, the Wynn is the best poker venue in Las Vegas so she will be playing in luxury.

Wrapping it up for fear that my jealousy is beginning to show, I think I speak for all of us when I say this club is rooting for you out there.

And in the words of Greg Raymer,

“Play smart and have fun!”

I say all this to warn the reader that today’s content is specific to our game and may not be of great interest to you. If this is the case, please tune in for future columns that are broarder in poker scope.

Welcome new players

We are excited to welcome 17 new registered players this season. These new members hail from Texas, South Carolina, Michigan, and Kentucky.

The 2024-2025 season (May-April) was our biggest player pool ever and we are going to break that this season. We have been averaging 27 players per Tuesday tournament. That’s up from 24 last season. While players come and go week by week and year by year, these numbers show that we are growing steadily.

Update on WSOP points race

Chris Lannoye. That is all. That is the full update. If you need more information, go to the points tally.

Player skill level

Having a tougher time getting weekly results? Assuming your name isn’t Chris Lannoye, the answer is probably yes. I know it has been more difficult for me. Well I’m here to tell you that it isn’t because your game has diminished.

The players in our club have gotten significantly more skilled as a whole in the past few years. Some of it is attributed to players cycling in and out of the game with some players hanging it up and new up and comers moving into those spots. However, another aspect to this phenomenon is our existing players’ improvement. I hope that this substack newsletter has helped a few of you and I know that some others are finding plenty of alternative places to study.

I am really glad that we are getting better as a whole. Sure it makes it harder to win each week, however, playing against better players is a great way to improve your own game and I think we all want that.

If you do find yourself falling behind and want to do something about it, shoot me a line and maybe I can point you toward some resources that can help. It’s always free to email me at mikieculpepper@gmail.com. If you aren’t sure where to start, find a hand you played that you are unsure of and we can go from there.

Update on WSOP prize packages

After reading the update on the WSOP points race above and checking out the points standings, you may find yourself feeling disenfranchised about your chances to win the package. If that’s the case, I am here to tell you to keep your nose to the grind stone and not just for the reason of grinding down your nose.

It will come as no surprise to you who have read a previous State of the Club addresses that I have had ambitions of multiple WSOP prize packages for a number of years now. We simply haven’t had the numbers to justify it.

Well, this year we are on track to make it a very close decision. Right now we are sitting at $3175 in the prize pool halfway through this season.

We make and announce the final payout decisions after the final tournament of January so we have some runway to figure it out. We are on track to make this leap. Let’s see if we stay on that track.

Where’s Dave Paukovitz?

One of the great mysteries of this September is the absence of TheNewHotPauko from our weekly game. Speculations range from our defending champion not being able to afford the $25 to having embarked on a September lent of sorts and denying himself the game that he loves.

My hope is of a different nature. I am dreaming that he is taking this time to write his experiences, trials, and tribulations of winning the 2025 WSOP package last year, taking the trip to Vegas, and his day 3 run in the WSOP Main Event!

If you are looking forward to reading this hypothetical manuscript of which I hint, hit the like (heart) button at the bottom of the page. I think he doesn’t realize how many are interested.

In summary

Wrapping it up, I want to thank you all for a great 6 months.

We successfully shifted the club to a new PokerStars destination, got everyone to move to the new venue that we have more control over, and are averaging more players per week than we ever have. All the while, we are still keeping this thing rake free.

Also, thanks to all of our players for paying reliably. Most of you are very timely and it is appreciated more than you may imagine.

Good luck to all of you in the second half of the season!

The Toy Game

Lets say I were to give you an honest die and tell you that you can pick 4 of the 6 numbers and I will take the remaining two. Now lets presume that I offer a game of chance to you with the winner of each roll winning a dollar from the other.

With you holding 4 of the 6 numbers, you would be foolish to not play this toy game against me for as long as I am willing - or can afford - to play it. Life doesn’t give us a lot of 66.66% winners.

Let’s say we can roll a round every 10 seconds. That would give us 360 rounds per hour. Of the 360, you would win around 240 of them with me winning 120. That would have you profiting $120 per hour in the long run. As long as you don’t make more than that in your profession, you should consider this game an upgrade to your ROI per hour from your regular employment. If you make more than $120 in your current job - good for you - you should only play against me to make some extra money if needed, have fun, or take money from me due to disliking my character.

In this toy game you are taking minimal risk for a good reward - an EV of over 33 cents per roll of the die.

Now lets change the game. Let’s propose that I am much wealthier than reality insists and I have a disregard for money. I offer you 5 numbers of the die but insist that we play for $25,000 on one roll but I refuse to play the game again afterwards.

Here, it appears, you get into a low risk high reward situation. It appears low risk because you will win over 83% of the time. The reward is relatively high compared to most peoples concept of “wagering money”.

However, here is where things get a bit muddy. The appearance of low risk is relative to outside factors having to do with your current wealth. If your entire net worth is $25,000 or so, this is probably a bad deal for you. Why? - It’s because your risk in the real world is extremely high.

I don’t want to go on a financial planning tangent but people should know that the last of a person’s dollars are much more important that those off the “top” of the pile. With the last of a person’s money, wealth can be rebuilt and earned upon much easier than starting from zero without a safety net.1

This is the “Risk Premium” of life. And so it is with poker tournaments as well.

There is the risk premium of “end game” poker tournament strategy that demands that you have more equity that EV requires to make a call for the rest of your tournament chips.

However, before we even get to that end stage, we face Risk vs. Reward scenarios from the first cards dealt. This risk / reward balance actually dictates GTO play.

Risk dictating our play.

Let’s take a hand like ATo. At 100 Big Blinds (BBs) deep - Most tournament start at around 200 BBs - this hand is a fold from Under the Gun (UTG). However, once we get to 80 BBs, it becomes an open raise / Raise First In (RFI). So what’s the difference?

The difference lies in the risk involved. Because of the UTG position, there is a better chance that someone behind wakes up with a better ace, you see a flop with an ace, and you lose a large chunk - or all - of your chips because your opponent had a better kicker. The larger the stack you have the more careful you need to be when picking hands that could be dominated like ATo, KJo, and QJo.

On the other hand, small pocket pairs like to be deep stacked. The idea here is to play a hand like 44 for cheap against your opponent’s AQo. If the flop runs A, Q, 4 or Q, Q, 4, you have a legitimate chance to stack your opponent (huge reward) for a small price.

The beauty is you won’t be strung along if you whiff. Let’s say the flop is A, J, 6. Once your opponent bets, you have an easy fold unlike the scenario when you played the dominated ATo. This makes the play low risk. These low risk / high reward scenarios are what you need to look for early in a poker tournament.

20 - 30 BBs

However, deep stacks don’t last too long. By the time you are an hour into a tournament, things have already changed. Two hours in, you may be doing perfectly fine and it turns out you are only at 30 BBs. Even if your opponents have around the same amount, you need to be playing different cards at this stage than you were when deep stacked.

For the sake of brevity, lets discuss some similar scenarios and look at the differences.2 At 20 BBs we are open raising with the ATo and folding pocket pairs 22 - 55 from UTG. What the heck happened?

Well the ATo is performing about the same as it was in the former scenario after seeing the flop so the reward is about the same. However, the risk has actually gone down. When you have 20 BBs and bust out of a tournament, it is simply not as catastrophic as when you bust out with 100+ BBs. Therefore when this risk dips, it makes the reward we are seeking more feasible to reach for.

Regarding the small pocket pairs, the risk is close to the same as it was before. We will only flop a set about 1 out of every 8 times we see the flop. This is true no matter how many BBs we have. What does change is the reward. In our earlier scenario, we had a chance to stack an opponent with 100+ BBs. Now, even if we double up, we are going to go from 20 BBs to 40 BBs. That’s not nothing. However, the reward of the same risk has dipped significantly. Enough to make playing 22 - 55 from early position unprofitable in the long run.

End Game (>10BBs)

At end game of a poker tournament some really wild things happen. While there is risk premium for busting the tournament. It waxes and wanes depending on the ICM pressure which usually peaks around the money bubble and the final table bubble. However, without getting too complex, lets stick with our ATo and small pocket pairs from early position scenarios.

When getting very thin on chips, it is never a bad idea to go all in with an Ace or a pocket pair. Sometimes that means ANY ace and ANY pocket pair. Although we flipped the importance of playing (and not playing) these two hands on the previous two stack sizes, they both converge to do quite well at end game. So what happened here? Are we widening our range?

What has happened with the ATo is we remove an ace from our opponents ability to have a better one and if we get called by a reasonable hand like KQs, we are ahead. We block AA and TT.

The small pocket pairs that we relied upon to flop a set deep stacked and completely gave up on mid game because of the pressure we would face on future streets, have now become strong enough to shove on their own merit.

We don’t expect to flop a set here. We simply want to hold up against AQo and double up. Once we go all in, we will see all 5 community cards and realize all of our equity without having to face pressure filled bets from our opponent(s). The risk of blinding out has simply surpassed the risk of busting on a shove in this scenario.

So did our range expand? Not really. Throughout all three of the BB stack sizes we have discussed, our RFI range has been about 17% of hands from UTG. For these hands we are adding to our range at end game by shoving our pet hands of the day, we are dropping hands like KJo3, K8s, JTo, QJo. These 4 hands are now open folds from early position. We lose these hands for the simple fact that an opponent with any ace can call us and be ahead. At 10 BBs, we simply don’t have enough fold equity (our opponents aren’t folding very often). This risk is higher than shoving the A6o.

The main takeaway I hope you glean is that when eyeing a reward of any kind - keep an eye on the risk involved. Know that these risks and rewards sometimes fluctuate by our personal biases and lot in life. So on the felt and in your checkbook, take a look at the risk. This may be worth it to you.

Most group initiatives we participate in are cooperative. In other words if we are doing an activity in a way that gives ourselves +EV, we are typically doing it in a way that is +EV for others. Examples range from using the correct currency, conforming to typical umbrella use, and working within the hours of a common workweek.

Let’s use the example of using headlights at night. It makes perfect sense that our best strategy for driving at night involves using our headlights. It gives us the ability to see where we are going!

It also adds to the EV of our fellow drivers. Afterall, if they can’t see us, that definitely detracts from their EV. So we have a positive sum of their positive EV and our positive EV.

There are also lots of negative sum EV equations. May wartime situations fall in this scenario - and not just mutually assured destruction. Imagine a country trying to take a territory or city from another. Both sides will have casualties for sure and the winner will perhaps only “win” a bombarded shell of a city as a prize. The EV of the winner is often diminished to negative and the EV of the loser is ALWAYS negative.

Poker - and a lot of other games for that matter - is what is referred to as Zero Sum. In a zero sum game or scenario, the winner wins the same amount the loser loses. If we ignore the rake, and or associated fees, other examples would include: trading on the stock market, a game of chess, or a wager between friends on a the outcome of a football game.

Zero Sum?… That doesn’t sound too good.

A lot of people feel icky about playing a zero sum game for money. Especially when there are so many other things we could do that build up ourselves and others at the same time.

However, as we discussed many times, especially on Motivation, more people than you may imagine are playing for fun or well within their poker budget. A majority love the game for the competition, the socialization, and the puzzle it presents to the brain.

That there are sick people in this world shouldn’t dissuade the healthy from enjoying the activities they adore.

How a Zero Sum scenario works

What’s important to remember when playing a zero sum game - like poker - is when you play +EV you take EV from others. Conversely, when you play or act -EV you are giving them an advantage.

I use the plural “them” because giving away EV doesn’t just positively impact your immediate opponent. You give some of the EV to the other opponents at the table as well.

When we learned about ICM, we discussed the idea that the big stack adding chips to her pile doesn’t have as big of a value as the absolute (negative) value of the shorter stack losing the same amount of chips. The ICM value of the big stack gain goes up a few percentage while the smaller stack losing the same amount may lose a very large percentage of the value of his stack. So if this is zero sum where did the difference in stack value go?

The answer is it went to the value of the stacks of the other opponents at the table or in the tournament. A small sliver of value is distributed amongst each player still in the game unevenly based (typically) on stack sizes with the smallest stacks “winning” the most value.

I made a chart for a simple ICM spot in the scenario below. I used this free app ICM calculator to get the stack values before and after a hand in which Albert (our chip leader) won 15000 in chips from Ernie (a shorter stack). The data is for a tournament which has 6 players left. This fictional tournament plays 3 spots with the winner receiving $500, second getting $300, and the third place player earning $100.

The first thing to notice is that while it was a heads up pot with Albert winning 15000 from Ernie alone, the ICM value of Albert’s stack went from $244 to $288. That’s an 18% increase in stack value. However, when we look at Ernie’s stack value it can be seen that losing that same 15000 in chips sunk the value of his stack from $119 to $53. That’s a loss of 55%.

What’s perhaps even more interesting is the value of the stacks that weren’t even in the hand. Each player that wasn’t involved in the hand “won” between $4 - $6 in stack value just based on the outcome of that hand.

Hopefully this gives you an idea of how the zero sum concept works and how it affects you and the players around you based on what the group is collectively doing.

The ways in which I see people giving away their EV most are: not taking advantage of one’s +EV opportunities, revealing specific information about their game, and letting others dictate big EV decisions.

Not taking advantage of +EV opportunities

I have seen my share of times when someone doesn’t want to “take advantage” of the weak or friendly player at the table. Sometimes, in an extreme example, even checking back with the nuts. I would caution against this type of “soft play” and not only because it is frowned upon and sometimes outright breaks the rules.

If we use the example in the chart above we can see that there are times that, although, we may think we are taking it easy on a simple player, we are actually giving value to our tougher opponents at the same time. Be Mr. Nice Guy at your own risk.

Revealing unnecessary information about your game

This often comes in the form of showing your hand when your opponent has folded. Maybe you had to show the bluff. Or maybe you show the goods because you want your opponents to think you’re honest so you can set up a bluff later. It really doesn’t matter if you are trying to think a level higher or are trying to be honestly nice. You don’t know the situation that is coming up next and whether showing now will prove to be to your benefit or detriment.

So if you want to guess or if you think you have a “system”, I’m here to tell you that - in the long run - this is a losing play and a losing thought process.

Another more nuanced reveal comes in the form of strategy banter at the table. If player A is telling player B that: “There is no way that player C was bluffing on that last hand” and player B is adamant that its possible, you should probably believe that both are being honest about how each would have played the hand. A lot can be gleaned about a person’s playing style if you listen to what players are saying to each other in these conversations.

This should also be your warning to steer clear of describing anything as “always” or “never” when in a discussion yourself. This is especially true in a higher stakes game where your opponents are more likely to be listening for such banter for this specific reason.

I will personally try to be vague in my answers to such questions and outright lie if put on the spot where I feel like I should answer to avoid awkwardness. This goes for the person that keeps asking about my hole cards after the hand as well.

Allowing others to dictate your EV decisions

You may be thinking “I would never allow someone to persuade me to make a bad decision in poker”. The truth is, you probably do it more than you think.

Let’s say you are the chip leader and you’re the most skilled player of the 4 left in the tournament. The group wants to do an even chop because one person has to get up early and another hasn’t cashed a tournament in 3 weeks and needs to tell his wife that he won something. If we don’t play this game often and we aren’t going to get a lot of future credit from the players that “need” to end the game, we are selling ourselves short.

Even if an ICM chop is proposed, it’s still a bad deal for the player with the skill edge. ICM numbers don’t consider the blinds, skill, or position. These are all considerations that YOU must account for.

If you have an advantage at short handed play and never use it, what good is it? You’re letting others make your EV decisions for you. What’s more is your opponents are likely short changing themselves - for the long term at least - as they aren’t taking advantage of the experience of short handed play for themselves.

I’m not against making a deal. Don’t get me wrong there. I just want a deal that I feel is good for me. Often that is the original tournament deal of playing it out to a winner.

I hope you gained something from the idea of spewing EV. As always, if you have any questions, let me hear them in the comments section below. I’m always open for a discussion - even for a chop.

A Tip of the Cap to Joe and Joey Schwenk for winning the Tag Team event at Firekeepers in Michigan last week. It couldn’t happen to a nicer couple guys and what a memory for the Father and Son. Congratulations Guys!

The breakdown of bankroll vs budgets and how your poker money is managed will depend a lot on your motivation and aspirations for the game. Reading the “Motivations” essay is by not a requirement to grasp this document. However, it does touch on some of the same fundamentals of knowing yourself and your goals so you can forge a plan that works for you.

A losing game?….hardly.

Because this is a beginner’s course, it will assume this game, at least currently, is costing you more than it is providing. In other words, a poker financial sheet would show a net loss for poker. If this is not the case, congratulations are in order as you are in a small group of players. An estimated 15% of poker players are winning players after rake for the long term and roughly half of these are marginally so. However, this essay will - hopefully - show you some ways to look at the game that take into account plenty of other factors that likely should be more important to you than profitability.

What are your goals?

I have a friend that has done well for himself financially. He is a better than average player that tries to pick up some pointers when he can. He is a thinking player in that he has a process that he analyzes before acting when a hand becomes significant.

The interesting - and perhaps enviable - thing about his game is his outlook on a poker tournament or session. The man thinks about his buy in as an entertainment cost. He will announce something along the lines of “I have certainly gotten my entertainment value for the evening” before he calls an all in or after he busts.

I opined that his outlook is perhaps enviable because to think about your poker game and your poker budget so freely and without concern for a bankroll must be very liberating. He keep records of all his sessions but probably doesn’t feel much pressure after a month in the red. After all, it was in the entertainment budget for the month.

Not every player has the luxury of these poker dollars meaning little more than tokens upon which to add to the entertainment budget. For most of us, if we began losing - and never started winning again - after trying every thing we could think of regarding strategies, methods, game selection, going down in stakes, and more, there would be an eventual point to which we would quit playing the game. For some of us it would take longer than for others but ultimately losing enough times would sink our confidence, spirits, and bankroll.

As we all know by now, each player marches to the beat of her own drummer. Many aspects of our mental and poker outlook affect the way we consider the money which we allot to our endeavor. The way we look at our individual poker finances both affects and is affected by:

1. Our motivation

2. Whether we use a bankroll or a budget

3. If we rely on poker income for our living or to supplement our living.

4. If we use results (money won) to motivate us to bigger games.

5. If we use results (money won) to score ourselves as winners or losers.

Motivation

We all care about money in some way or another. The primary way we view money through the lens of poker has a lot to do with our ultimate motivation. The spectrum varies from the extremes of desire to be a legit professional player to our aforementioned friend that budgets poker as his entertainment. For the first, money carries the importance of having funds for food, rent, electricity, car payment, and every other household bill we have on top of making sure that a fair amount of revenue go to replenish and - hopefully - build the bankroll. The latter simply must have enough green in his monthly entertainment budget to purchase entry into his game of choice on his night of choice and have fun participating.

It’s obvious to me as it should be to you that the aspiring professional is facing a higher stakes situation with his money than the recreational player.

Bankroll vs. Budget

Most of us are probably somewhere in between. The money probably does mean some extra prosperity. It may hurt more to lose the money than the pride lost in the competition. The point is this: The money we spend on entering a poker tournament is typically a mix between money we would otherwise spend on everyday goods and services (i.e. new tires, bottle of wine, or grad school) and money we would otherwise spend on being entertained in that moment (going bowling or the movies).

If you are on the professional side of the spectrum, it is better to have a bankroll that is dedicated to your poker “gig”. This money is specifically used to help generate money that goes back into your bankroll. If you are a seasoned pro, you would take a certain amount of money out of the bankroll each month for living purposes. If you are just getting your feet wet and using poker as a side hustle, you may find yourself adding money to your bankroll each month to build it to the foundation that you need to play your target games.

If you are on the recreational side of this spectrum, it is better to budget a certain amount of money each month (or year) to poker. Winnings would go back into your general fund (bank account). Any move up in stakes would involve reassessing your budget to see if there are sacrifices you are willing and able to make elsewhere.

Relying on Poker income

If you rely on poker income for your livelihood, special care should be taken with your bankroll. A priority should be on: playing games in which you are +EV with an emphasis on field sizes that are small enough to make income consistent (if a tournament player). In addition, some additional thought should be put into chopping when getting at least ICM value for your stack. The deal can be very helpful to a player who depends on poker revenue for working income. Variance dictates that taking ones share is better than gambling on the win vs 3rd or 2nd place. Luck plays a bigger part of end game than when deeper stacked so any skill edge is dulled.

Results to motivate us to bigger games

If you are a recreational player that wants to play bigger games, using winnings to fund those goals is a great way to do it. However, beware of the pitfalls of moving up in stakes without eyes wide open.

Higher stakes games have better players. There may be a few exceptions to this rule (ex. WSOP Main Event), but they are scarce. Players at a higher level have been to - and beaten - the lower level already and have an experience factor. This doesn’t mean an aspirational player shouldn’t take a shot at a higher buyin or two. It just means that when it is taken, it is acknowledged and justified.

Ego plays a big role in life. The poker table is no different. When we are crushing a level and move up and start losing, the immediate reaction is the variance or the other players are getting lucky.

Aspiring pro players have to realize when the “shot” has been taken and failed. Regrouping and going back to the level at which they are successful is the most sure way to regain stable ground with their bankroll.

For a recreational player, it is not much different. As final tables and wins become more scarce, we must go back to the level at which we found success in an effort to maximize our enjoyment and confidence in our game.

There will always be more shots to take in the future. Learning the timing and recognizing the situations is the key.

Results to score ourselves

Keeping a mental “score” based on results is natural human behavior. I can preach “process over results” till Christmas but I know that players (including myself) keep a pretty good score either in their head or on a ledger.

I advise to actually write down every result. Not to keep a more accurate “score” than you can in your head but, rather, to level out the highs and lows.

If I am on a downswing, I can look at my ledger and see that I am a profitable player. Maybe not for this month or the month before but if I zoom out to the previous quarter or the previous year, the results speak for themselves. It also gives me a chance to put myself in check when I am thinking “I run bad” or “I don’t see how all this studying is helping.” The longtime results are there.

On the opposite end of things, when I am having a sun run, I can look back at my losing months and check my own ego before going out to play my next session.

Keeping score

I hope this helps put money in some perspective. There is a lot to unpack when it comes to the green stuff and some people don’t want to talk about it at all.

The main thing is understand that most every player is looking at how money is integrated into his game. However, much like everything in poker - It’s complicated.

Ultimately, like it or not, it’s how we keep score. In the short term - and more importantly in the long term. So make sure you are careful enough to have a “long term” in the game.

If you enjoy this newsletter, please consider a like (heart shaped icon). If you have any questions, ask below in the comments. I’d be happy to try to answer and if I am unable, I will try to find someone who can.

We will be doing some player profiles (interviews) before the year is up. If there is a player in our group that you would like to know more about, let me know at mikieculpepper@gmail.com.

I hear all the time how poker is a lonely game. Comparisons to marathon running, golf, and chess are fair in that they have a big mental component that relies on the motivation and determination of one person. However, those activities also benefit greatly from a team.

Before we get into the learning, training, and comradery benefits of having a group of peers with which to discuss poker, I want to let you know that it’s a lot more fun to be part of a team.

The Excitement

Two of the most enjoyable experiences of my poker life have had me on the rail of my favorite player winning a tournament. Being able to discuss hands and strategy during her breaks and helping design a plan that is the most +EV for her tournament jacks me up. I would not have been more excited had I been in her shoes.

Of course we are speaking of the First Lady, Adrienne Culpepper. And, yes she is my wife so her results would, technically, benefit the entire household. But I can name a few friends that I would enjoy a sweat with just as much.

The Benefits

The beauty of being able to discuss hands with someone who is on a run is mutually beneficial. The player gets advice from a close friend that has a level head and can try to take some emotional air out of the pressure tank. The coach or friend gets to hear about the situations upon which his friend is put therefore giving him experience that can’t be bought. By working together, both are likely to remember the details and the aura of the event itself leading to positive memory dividends.

And you don’t have to be on the rail in order to benefit from this type of relationship. Besides the aforementioned lady of the house, I often discuss hands with two other close friends who are very competent in the game. Through these discussions, my mind has been changed or at least swayed on many an intricacy.

The bottom line is other people have different perspective than you. They have been in situations that you haven’t or tried things you wouldn’t. Everyone has something to add to the conversation. However, we can’t (and shouldn’t) listen to everyone so lets set some parameters on the people whose advice we should seek….

Guidelines for a “teammate”:

1. Cares about you.

2. Is your poker peer.

3. A person you are willing to listen and give feedback to.

4. Takes the games seriously.

A person that cares about you (or at least your game), is a must have trait for your group. If someone doesn’t care all that much, he is unlikely to give you well thought out feedback. If you get the feeling that your query isn’t really being paid attention to, move on and find an ear that is more interested.

Your group should be your peers. This means that they are relatively close to you in skill and experience and playing the same types of games you are. If you are grinding a 1-3 NLH game, don’t ask a player that specializes in 5-10-10 BIG O. Neither you nor your compatriot will benefit greatly and you could actually hurt each other’s strategy if bad advice is taken to heart.

As a ying to No.1’s yang, you also need to care about the information your team brings to you. Even if this person isn’t extremely important to you, try to immerse yourself in the situation, ask questions and then LISTEN to what your mate has to say and the questions she asks. If done right, being a good teammate will help you as much as it will help her.

The people whose advice and counsel you should seek have to have a seriousness for the game that matches yours. If you have legitimate questions and they just always want to say “YOLO” or “did you win the hand?”, this person isn’t on the same wavelength as you.

We aren’t seeking advice on a hand when we just want to relay the results. We are telling a story. Stories have their place in the poker world but they aren’t a good tool for learning. We have all heard a thousand bad beat stories. Telling another one will not help your game any more than it will help the listener.

“Telling a bad beat story is like throwing your trash onto someone else’s lawn.”

- Erik Seidel

What do you not know?

You may say, “I study on my own and I just don’t feel like dorking out over this material with others and inviting them into what I am thinking at the table especially if I play against them.” I would say perhaps you have a point. However, the good of discussing the game with others almost always outweighs any downside.

If you study on your own, Great! Now imagine if each member of your discussion group studies on his own as well. It’s safe to assume that you aren’t all studying the same subject matter or strategy. Therefore, it can create a very symbiotic discussion rounding out known strategy with that that is unknown.

“Do you think you are better or worse than you actually are at poker?” This is a question I heard asked of another on a poker podcast years ago. It’s a paradox - at least partly - as it asks the opinion of an opinion of the same person.

However, it does remind me of the Dunning - Kruger effect.

The Dunning - Kruger effect is a cognitive bias of which persons of limited knowledge or skill in a particular expertise tend to overestimate their competence. This is represented on the left hand side of the graph. You can see that as we gain a small amount of knowledge on a subject we often believe that we are becoming adept at it quickly.

Worsening the problem, the material we are consuming is typically beginner material, so we feel like we are comprehending it faster than a typical person would and therefore we must have a “knack” for it.

“Peak of Mt. Stupid” is a bit of a misnomer as we know more than we did a short time ago. Perhaps it should be “Mt. Ignorant” as we have literally no idea the amount that we DON’T know.

Herein is the crux of this bias. Because we don’t know what we don’t know, we are wandering through the dark. Just because we have found an object that we can identify as a chair doesn’t mean we have any idea how big the room, what color the walls are, or even what floor of the building we are on for that matter. All of our confidence is in the idea that we know this is a chair we have found. But we have no idea that the assignment is to describe the entire city block.

This leads us to the Valley of Despair. As we realize that the scope of what needs to be known grows exponentially, we realize that we know almost nothing. It dawn on us that there is a vast forest of subject matter to learn that is much more complex than what we have already learned. On top of all this, there is probably another forest (or forests) beyond this that we can’t even bring into focus.

Fear not. As you can see from the graph, from here both our knowledge and confidence improve. There will be bumps in the road but, for the most part, you control how quickly each rises.

What we control

Wherever you are on the Dunning - Kruger chart when it comes to poker, you must realize that you have the power to get better at this game. Keep reading, keep studying, keep listening, keep playing.

Find a group of likeminded people who want to keep improving with you.

History of the C-bet

For old school poker players (especially ones that love seeing a flop), this is the point in the hand where they decide to release their inferior holdings.

If you think about it in terms of numbers, it makes sense. If you didn’t hit your pair with your big card or a set with your small pocket pair, why call a bet when you only have 2 cards left to catch up and you will likely face further aggression on the turn and river?

However there are flaws in this mentality and the pros had the experience and reps to use this mentality to their favor.

Inexperienced players were consistently giving up after missing the flop and facing a continuation bet. It didn’t take long for professionals to figure out that betting the flop EVERY time when they were the preflop aggressor, was a profitable play.

These grinders surmised that a given hand is only going to pair on the flop less than 30% of the time with a random hand. Because not every random hand is calling preflop (think 62o), there will be more shared (dominated) cards in the callers range preflop (think AJo vs QJo) the percentage for hitting the flop will actually be lower than the estimate for the random hand.

What was really figured out is that the range of the player with initiative (the preflop aggressor) has a range advantage and therefore an equity advantage. This is to say that the player with the initiative will, more often, win the hand because he is likely to have better holdings than his opponent.

So the “Continuation Bet” (C-Bet) was born. Well this worked beautifully for a long time and made a lot of people a lot of money. However, much like everything in the world of economics and war, countermeasures were found.

Countermeasures

Here are a few examples of what the passive player in the hand (Callers) began doing preflop in order to play more balance postflop:

1. Callers began tightening their preflop unsuited range from out of position
   (typically BB) to avoid domination.

2. Callers widened their preflop button range to play more hands from in position.

3. Callers implemented a 3-bet (3!) or fold strategy from the small blind to fold out more equity from the BB and to press the issue with the opener in an effort to not have to play the rest of the hand from out of position. Perhaps against a late position opener, the small blind will 3! 17% of hands, fold 80% and call with only 3% of hands.

The Caller would implement these 3 preflop strategies so she would have a range that could defend more efficiently against a player who C-bets at a high frequency.

Here are the post flop strategies that could now be implemented by her because of the 3 (and others) listed above:

1. Check raising on favorable boards. If the board runs out 8, 5, 4, the caller in the big blind vs. an UTG open will be the only player that likely has 55, 44, 67s in her range. The UTG opener may have 88 but lacks the other nutted type hands in his range. By check raising on this flop (even with a hand like 7,5s) the caller is putting a lot of pressure on the aggressor’s range.

2. Floating the flop. This concept involves calling the C-bet of the aggressor post flop in order to see if the aggressor continues to bet the turn. This is to exploit the players that over C-bet the flop but will not fire again on the future streets if they don’t improve. The caller is essentially saying “I know you miss the flop as often as I do so I am calling your bluff and see if you have the gall to continue your aggressive ways after you have been called.” Typically, if the turn goes check check, the caller will then bet (value or bluff) to try to take down the pot.

3. Showing “Stickiness”. A sticky player is one that doesn’t go away easily. Sticky players can be frustrating to play against from any position. They have gathered that their play frustrates other players. This frustration causes other players to avoid playing pots against these sticky players in marginal spots. As you can imagine, this is +EV for the caller.

Countermeasures to the countermeasures

Therefore, a player that C-Bets 100% of the time is burning money in the modern game.

The following points should be considered before C-Betting in order to counter the counter action:23

1. Position: The pre flop aggressor should C-bet approximately 80% of flops from in position. This same player should C-bet only around 60% of flops from out of position.4

2. Stack Sizes: In a tournament, if the player with aggression flops a nutted hand and the stacks are short, it is often correct to slow the play down to allow the opponent to “catch up” to a better losing hand that will call a bet on a future street. The idea behind this is that since stacks are short, it shouldn’t be difficult to get it in by the river so why rush it and run off the opponent.

3. Flop texture: This is one of the biggest indicators of how to act post flop. A flop that is very good for the preflop aggressor such as A, 8, 3 rainbow is a C-bet at 100% frequency. Weigh that against the 6, 5, 4. This second flop example favors the range of the preflop caller. If you don’t believe me, check out the preflop raising and defending ranges of early position vs big blind respectively.5

This is as comfortable as I feel I can go and still call this beginner content. To be sure we probably crossed that line a few times even with these simple heuristics.

As always, if you want to start a conversation, please hit me up in the comment section below. I do appreciate the feedback even if it is a simple “like” by clicking the heart shape below.

People get in routines. They have the same amount of coffee in the morning - usually from the same place. They sleep on the same side of the bed. They buy the same brand of beer over and over.

When a person gets into a routine, he or she feels a sense of comfort in the known. We know that this flavor agrees with us. We know what page and section of the New York Times we prefer. We know that the brand of shoes that we buy are comfortable on our feet.

The only difference between a routine and a habit is the connotation that a habit is difficult to change while a routine is to be respected and, somehow, honored. Here we will use them synonymously.1

Poker is no different. We choose to play at the same places, talk to the same people, and often, sit in the same seat as normal.

These types of habits are mostly benign. Sure we should probably go play different games and variants of poker at different venues to improve our mind and memory.

However, the comfort, profitability, and enjoyability of a certain venue and its patrons is also compelling.2

The habits we will speak of today, however, are more important to our ultimate enjoyment of this great game.

The Bad Habits

1. Playing above your bankroll.

2. Superstition

3. Remembering the inconsequential

Playing above your bankroll

We will discuss budgeting and bankroll management in depth in a future issue of this beginner series but I will make one point here. Consistently playing above a sustainable monetary level can be an indicator that a person is a gambler rather than a player. The key word is sustainable. If sustainability can’t be reached, the game will not be yours for the long run.

Superstition

We all see patterns. These patterns expose themselves to our very sensitive neural systems. We pick up on these things because of millennia of human evolution to help the individual and the species survive. We are wired to eat from the breast, hold our breath when underwater, and show empathy through imitation - ex. yawning when witnessing another person yawn.

At the card table we are seeing a lot of patterns too. Some are quite helpful: The one guy who gets quiet and straightens up in his chair every time he gets a good hand. Also, the lady who stops shuffling her chips when she is bluffing.

However some are just noise that ought to be ignored. An example of this is recognizing that a “lot of fours” or “so many diamonds” are showing up on the flop is admirable in that the player is paying attention to the action and the board. However, it becomes a bad habit when superstition leads the player to adjust her strategy to play more hands that contain a four or a diamond.

Just like luck, it is a fact that patterns happen in the past. Where the superstitious goes wrong is assuming that past pattern will somehow continue to affirm itself. The reality is the likelihood of it continuing is the same as it starting from scratch as if the pattern hadn’t shown itself in the first place.

An astute player, however, will not point out that “Nines are hot” should be discounted. As a fact, he will play the game of interest and continue to point out when the pattern rings true in an effort to confirm his opponents’ superstitious ways.

Remembering the Inconsequential

Players crack me up sometimes. A tournament will not pass me before at least one person rings into my ears that “There is no good way to play Jacks!” or “Kings are just Ace magnets!”. The reality of these statements is this player has a history of loss with these particular hands while holding a VERY high expectation preflop. In consequence of these losses, these hands are misplayed either to the passive (open limp) or the ultra aggressive (Open rip all in with 40 big blinds). These mistakes further the players negative association with the preflop starter when the desired outcome is rarely reached.

I often hear a player moan that “I have lost with AQ 3 times tonight”. Meanwhile the same player will not remember that his opponent 3 bet bluffed as the chip leader at the final table the week before or, in another situation, that a player called a 3 bet jam with ATo while having a workable stack.

My point is that remembering examples of the scenarios and patterns that your opponents recently made is infinitely more important that the pattern of losing with the AQ 3 times. Losing with the AQ 3 times is like flipping a coin and it landing on heads 3 times in a row. That’s not a good space to use our limited cognitive powers.

The Good Habits

1. Prepare

2. Look the Part

3. Pay Attention

Prepare

This means know the tournament structure, Buyin, Rebuy and Add-on possibilities. Know if there is another tournament at which you can play should you bust early. For a cash game, know the type of opponents you are likely to play at this level and this geography or this room.

Have an ICM calculator on your personal device as well as some coaching software to study your spot at dinner break.

Wear layers to prepare for all climates and bring some healthy snacks to keep your blood sugar levels at baseline.

And, of course, have the proper funds prepared for the activities.

Look the Part

We have all heard “fake it till you make it”. There is, in my opinion, a lot of merit to this quip. A lot of it has to do with the other quote you hear in “it’s better to stay quiet and be thought a fool than you open your mouth and remove all doubt.” Here are some things you can do right now to get some respect at the poker table:

• Being stoic and quiet can lead others to believe you know what you’re doing……even if you don’t. We put a lot of (wasted) time into trying to conceive and interpret tells from other players while doing very little to conceal our own leaks. We should always start by playing defense by keeping our ticks, yawns, moans, and eye rolls to a minimum.

• Keeping your stacks neat and orderly in a manner which your opponents can count lets your more experienced opponents know that you have “been here before”. This alone can buy you a bit of table cred when the rubber meets the road.

• After losing a big pot (or winning one), stay professional. Say “good hand” or “tough break”. If you bust, politely get up and wish the table a good evening. It does you zero good and only harm to act like a child especially if you are to play with these people again.

Pay Attention

This is the crux of becoming a good poker player. The previous two good habits are attitude based by trying to act and play a part for which you are actually unprepared. They will help with your image in the eyes of others. Paying attention is different and much more important as it will actively make you a better player.

By paying attention, you not only naturally look more experienced and prepared, it helps you become more experienced and prepared.

If your eyes stay on the action - even when you aren’t in the hand - you gain multiple times the experience as you would if you are watching the football game on the tv in the casino or chatting with a table mate.

When you are starting out, this experience is GOLDEN. You probably aren’t a winning player yet and the only ways to become one are study and experience. If you pay attention you will gain this experience much faster and therefore cheaper on your way to becoming a +EV player.

On top of this huge benefit, you are less likely to make systematic mistakes like posting your blinds or acting out of turn. When you are a beginner, these mistakes can weigh on you a bit mentally so anytime you can avoid them by doing something that is as obvious as paying attention to the game, you should try.

I believe tells are one of the biggest overblown aspects of poker when it comes to the inexperienced player. Most non players believe in “soul reading” or “sensing weakness”. While there are a lot of great players that have a better handle on these things than others, none of this is necessary to become a good player.

What is important is to pay attention to obvious quirks in someone’s game. You don’t have to be Doyle Brunson or Phil Ivey to look to your left and see a weak player holding his cards in the “fold position” to know this player is likely to not contest this pot. You don’t have to have telepathy to see that the Big Blind has gone to the bathroom and you should probably raise your hand that is borderline because of the implications and the dead money involved.

You simply have to Pay Attention. Which is probably a big part of Mr. Brunson and Mr. Ivey’s success and habits.

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